or


[10/08/09 - 11:47 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season: #9 - Most Shows Lose 25% of Their Debut Audience
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our annual feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

9. Most shows lose 25% of their premiere audience by week four.

It shouldn't be too much of a surprise to learn that, for the most part, a new show's audience will fade from week to week. After all, television is weekly commitment and not everyone who watches a show's premiere will be in it for the long haul. But how large is that exodus? It turns out after the first week, 11% of viewers on average don't come back for round two. By the third week, nearly 22% of those initial premiere viewers are gone. Ultimately by a show's fourth installment, 25% of that initial audience will have tuned out. Take a look at how each new show last season fared with each successive week (the number in parenthesis denotes the rank of that week's respective change):

series (network)week 1week 2week 3week 4
mentalist, the (cbs)15.6-0.64% (7)-4.49% (6)-1.92% (6)
lie to me (fox)12.4-1.61% (9)4.84% (2)-10.48% (10)
eleventh hour (cbs)11.44.39% (4)3.51% (3)-1.75% (5)
life on mars (abc)11.3-27.43% (39)-30.09% (31)-28.32% (24)
surviving suburbia (abc)11.2-13.39% (20)-11.61% (9)-19.64% (13)
worst week (cbs)10.9-17.43% (25)-19.27% (18)-10.09% (9)
castle (abc)10.81.85% (5)-15.74% (15)-15.74% (12)
superstars of dance (nbc)10.6-8.49% (13)-32.08% (35)-38.68% (32)
harper's island (cbs)10.2-23.53% (35)-31.37% (33)-54.90% (38)
southland (nbc)9.9-3.03% (11)-18.18% (17)-32.32% (28)
fringe (fox)9.146.15% (2)3.30% (4)8.79% (3)
homeland security usa (abc)7.8-23.08% (34)-28.21% (29)-28.21% (23)
howie do it (nbc)7.8-21.79% (32)-28.21% (28)-32.05% (27)
true beauty (abc)7.6-14.47% (21)-23.68% (23)-9.21% (7)
kath & kim (nbc)7.5-18.67% (28)-33.33% (37)-28.00% (22)
secret millionaire (abc)7.4-1.35% (8)-27.03% (26)-9.46% (8)
crusoe (nbc)7.4-17.57% (26)-44.59% (40)-43.24% (36)
my own worst enemy (nbc)7.3-21.92% (33)-27.40% (27)-41.10% (35)
america's toughest jobs (nbc)7.3-2.74% (10)-10.96% (8)-44.38% (37)
cupid (abc)7.2-20.83% (30)-15.28% (14)-22.22% (15)
hole in the wall (fox)7.2-44.44% (42)-25.00% (24)-34.72% (29)
parks & recreation (nbc)6.9-13.04% (19)-23.19% (21)-26.09% (18)
gary unmarried (cbs)6.81.47% (6)8.82% (1)10.29% (2)
ex list, the (cbs)6.8-17.65% (27)-7.35% (7)-22.06% (14)
unusuals, the (abc)6.8-11.76% (18)-14.71% (13)-30.88% (25)
in the motherhood (abc)6.7-25.37% (37)-32.84% (36)-31.34% (26)
opportunity knocks (abc)6.6-9.09% (14)-21.21% (19)
kings (nbc)6.1-24.59% (36)-26.23% (25)-40.98% (34)
momma's boys (nbc)6.0-16.67% (23)-16.67% (16)-11.67% (11)
better off ted (abc)5.5-16.36% (22)-14.55% (12)-27.27% (20)
sit down, shut up (fox)5.2-19.23% (29)-59.62% (42)-71.15% (40)
dollhouse (fox)4.8-10.42% (16)-12.50% (10)-25.00% (16)
90210 (cw)4.7-31.91% (40)-29.79% (30)-38.30% (31)
do not disturb (fox)4.7-17.02% (24)-23.40% (22)
chopping block (nbc)3.8-10.53% (17)-31.58% (34)-39.47% (33)
game show in my head (cbs)3.488.24% (1)2.94% (5)11.76% (1)
privileged (cw)2.6-7.69% (12)-30.77% (32)-26.92% (19)
13: fear is real (cw)2.4-41.67% (41)-48.33% (41)-62.50% (39)
stylista (cw)2.3-21.74% (31)-21.74% (20)-26.09% (17)
valentine (cw)1.1-9.09% (15)-36.36% (38)-27.27% (21)
easy money (cw)1.1-27.27% (38)-36.36% (39)-36.36% (30)
in harm's way (cw)0.714.29% (3)-14.29% (11)0.00% (4)
average-10.88%-21.54%-25.47%

Some other interesting notes: only two of the 19 shows that lost 28% (or more) of their premiere audience got renewed for second seasons: "90210" and "Southland." Conversely, "Gary Unmarried," "Fringe" and "The Mentalist" either built or stayed on par with their debut viewership, not surprisingly earning second seasons in the process. That facet however didn't help "Game Show In My Head," "In Harm's Way" and "Eleventh Hour," all of which were canceled last season. So why were they canceled then? Stay tuned.

TOMORROW: The final tools you'll need to survive the new season.





  [october 2009]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
    


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[05/26/26 - 08:31 AM]
Video: "AFI Life Achievement Award: A Tribute to Eddie Murphy" - Sneak Peek - Netflix
The special honors one of the most influential and beloved figures in film, celebrating a career that has redefined comedy and left a lasting impact on global audiences.

[05/26/26 - 08:06 AM]
"Ruthless" Returns with a New Season June 30, on Its New Home, Paramount+
Influence comes with risks.

[05/26/26 - 08:01 AM]
The Final Season of "All the Queen's Men" Premieres June 10 on Its New Home, Paramount+
What new secrets will we unearth at Eden?

[05/26/26 - 07:01 AM]
Video: "The Root Of The Game" - Official Trailer - Netflix
Brazil lives, breathes and exports várzea. This series delves into the stories behind the beautiful game - one with the power to change lives.

[05/26/26 - 05:01 AM]
Video: "The Ribbon Hero" - Official Teaser - Netflix
Brought to life by a powerhouse team of creators, this new anime film arrives August 8, 2026, only on Netflix.

[05/26/26 - 12:01 AM]
Video: "Norway: The Dark Horse" - Official Trailer - Netflix
Hope and history collide as an elite Norwegian squad fights to end a 26-year wait and earn a place at the 2026 World Cup in this rare-access documentary.

[05/25/26 - 01:08 PM]
MLB on ESPN Schedule Updates: Seattle Mariners Visit Baltimore Orioles on June 11; Defending World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers Host American League-Leading Tampa Bay Rays on June 15
Commentator assignments for both games will be announced soon.

[05/25/26 - 12:01 PM]
Heading to OKC! ESPN Presents Exclusive Coverage of the NCAA Women's College World Series
The final two teams face off in the best-of-three series, beginning on June 3.

[05/25/26 - 08:32 AM]
Netflix Announces Five New Brazilian Productions and Expands Its Presence at Rio2C 2026
Netflix will participate in five panels throughout the event, bringing together executives, creators and partners to discuss topics such as the future of audiovisual production in Brazil and Latin America, sports storytelling, and models of collaboration and financing for Brazilian cinema.

[05/25/26 - 08:31 AM]
"MED," Production Begins on Netflix's First Medical Drama, Starring Clara Moneke
Starring Clara Moneke and set in a university hospital, the series immerses viewers in the intense world of young doctors in training, exploring the emotional, ethical and deeply human challenges of the profession.

[05/25/26 - 03:01 AM]
Video: "The Marked Woman" - Official Trailer - Netflix
When a woman is found in a shipping container with no memory of who she is, two detectives race to figure out her identity - and who wants her dead.

[05/24/26 - 09:02 PM]
Video: "President Curtis" - New Series Coming in July - Adult Swim
The new series is coming in July on Adult Swim.

[05/24/26 - 08:46 AM]
Video: HBO Max Unveils Coming Soon Spot Featuring First Looks at Several Upcoming Originals
The spot features never-before-seen footage from "Conan O'Brien Must Go," "Life, Larry and the Pursuit of Unhappiness," "Monsters of God," "The Gilded Age," "The Man Will Burn," "War," and "Youth."

[05/22/26 - 02:54 PM]
Video: Summer Nights 2026 - All Month Long this June
Summer Nights returns this June with all-new movies every Saturday on Hallmark Channel.

[05/22/26 - 11:15 AM]
"Celebrity Wheel of Fortune" Is Taking a Big Summer Spin!
This summer, "Celebrity Wheel of Fortune" brings 10 all-new episodes exclusively to Disney+ and Hulu beginning Friday, June 12.