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[10/08/09 - 11:47 PM] The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season: #9 - Most Shows Lose 25% of Their Debut Audience By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC) |
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Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.
Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our annual feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...
9. Most shows lose 25% of their premiere audience by week four.
It shouldn't be too much of a surprise to learn that, for the most part, a new show's audience will fade from week to week. After all, television is weekly commitment and not everyone who watches a show's premiere will be in it for the long haul. But how large is that exodus? It turns out after the first week, 11% of viewers on average don't come back for round two. By the third week, nearly 22% of those initial premiere viewers are gone. Ultimately by a show's fourth installment, 25% of that initial audience will have tuned out. Take a look at how each new show last season fared with each successive week (the number in parenthesis denotes the rank of that week's respective change):
| series (network) | week 1 | week 2 | week 3 | week 4 |
| mentalist, the (cbs) | 15.6 | -0.64% (7) | -4.49% (6) | -1.92% (6) |
| lie to me (fox) | 12.4 | -1.61% (9) | 4.84% (2) | -10.48% (10) |
| eleventh hour (cbs) | 11.4 | 4.39% (4) | 3.51% (3) | -1.75% (5) |
| life on mars (abc) | 11.3 | -27.43% (39) | -30.09% (31) | -28.32% (24) |
| surviving suburbia (abc) | 11.2 | -13.39% (20) | -11.61% (9) | -19.64% (13) |
| worst week (cbs) | 10.9 | -17.43% (25) | -19.27% (18) | -10.09% (9) |
| castle (abc) | 10.8 | 1.85% (5) | -15.74% (15) | -15.74% (12) |
| superstars of dance (nbc) | 10.6 | -8.49% (13) | -32.08% (35) | -38.68% (32) |
| harper's island (cbs) | 10.2 | -23.53% (35) | -31.37% (33) | -54.90% (38) |
| southland (nbc) | 9.9 | -3.03% (11) | -18.18% (17) | -32.32% (28) |
| fringe (fox) | 9.1 | 46.15% (2) | 3.30% (4) | 8.79% (3) |
| homeland security usa (abc) | 7.8 | -23.08% (34) | -28.21% (29) | -28.21% (23) |
| howie do it (nbc) | 7.8 | -21.79% (32) | -28.21% (28) | -32.05% (27) |
| true beauty (abc) | 7.6 | -14.47% (21) | -23.68% (23) | -9.21% (7) |
| kath & kim (nbc) | 7.5 | -18.67% (28) | -33.33% (37) | -28.00% (22) |
| secret millionaire (abc) | 7.4 | -1.35% (8) | -27.03% (26) | -9.46% (8) |
| crusoe (nbc) | 7.4 | -17.57% (26) | -44.59% (40) | -43.24% (36) |
| my own worst enemy (nbc) | 7.3 | -21.92% (33) | -27.40% (27) | -41.10% (35) |
| america's toughest jobs (nbc) | 7.3 | -2.74% (10) | -10.96% (8) | -44.38% (37) |
| cupid (abc) | 7.2 | -20.83% (30) | -15.28% (14) | -22.22% (15) |
| hole in the wall (fox) | 7.2 | -44.44% (42) | -25.00% (24) | -34.72% (29) |
| parks & recreation (nbc) | 6.9 | -13.04% (19) | -23.19% (21) | -26.09% (18) |
| gary unmarried (cbs) | 6.8 | 1.47% (6) | 8.82% (1) | 10.29% (2) |
| ex list, the (cbs) | 6.8 | -17.65% (27) | -7.35% (7) | -22.06% (14) |
| unusuals, the (abc) | 6.8 | -11.76% (18) | -14.71% (13) | -30.88% (25) |
| in the motherhood (abc) | 6.7 | -25.37% (37) | -32.84% (36) | -31.34% (26) |
| opportunity knocks (abc) | 6.6 | -9.09% (14) | -21.21% (19) | |
| kings (nbc) | 6.1 | -24.59% (36) | -26.23% (25) | -40.98% (34) |
| momma's boys (nbc) | 6.0 | -16.67% (23) | -16.67% (16) | -11.67% (11) |
| better off ted (abc) | 5.5 | -16.36% (22) | -14.55% (12) | -27.27% (20) |
| sit down, shut up (fox) | 5.2 | -19.23% (29) | -59.62% (42) | -71.15% (40) |
| dollhouse (fox) | 4.8 | -10.42% (16) | -12.50% (10) | -25.00% (16) |
| 90210 (cw) | 4.7 | -31.91% (40) | -29.79% (30) | -38.30% (31) |
| do not disturb (fox) | 4.7 | -17.02% (24) | -23.40% (22) | |
| chopping block (nbc) | 3.8 | -10.53% (17) | -31.58% (34) | -39.47% (33) |
| game show in my head (cbs) | 3.4 | 88.24% (1) | 2.94% (5) | 11.76% (1) |
| privileged (cw) | 2.6 | -7.69% (12) | -30.77% (32) | -26.92% (19) |
| 13: fear is real (cw) | 2.4 | -41.67% (41) | -48.33% (41) | -62.50% (39) |
| stylista (cw) | 2.3 | -21.74% (31) | -21.74% (20) | -26.09% (17) |
| valentine (cw) | 1.1 | -9.09% (15) | -36.36% (38) | -27.27% (21) |
| easy money (cw) | 1.1 | -27.27% (38) | -36.36% (39) | -36.36% (30) |
| in harm's way (cw) | 0.7 | 14.29% (3) | -14.29% (11) | 0.00% (4) |
| average | | -10.88% | -21.54% | -25.47% |
Some other interesting notes: only two of the 19 shows that lost 28% (or more) of their premiere audience got renewed for second seasons: "90210" and "Southland." Conversely, "Gary Unmarried," "Fringe" and "The Mentalist" either built or stayed on par with their debut viewership, not surprisingly earning second seasons in the process. That facet however didn't help "Game Show In My Head," "In Harm's Way" and "Eleventh Hour," all of which were canceled last season. So why were they canceled then? Stay tuned.
TOMORROW: The final tools you'll need to survive the new season.
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[10/06/26 - 12:06 PM] NBC Sports' 2026-27 Big Ten Men's and Women's Basketball Schedules Announced, Featuring 80+ Games on NBC, Peacock, and NBCSN Defending national champion Michigan will make five appearances on Peacock and NBCSN this season.
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[10/06/26 - 12:01 PM] Netflix Top 10: Week of September 28 - "East of Eden" Triumphs to the No. 1 Spot in This Week's Top 10 "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story" claimed the No. 2 spot on the list with 5.7 million views, with a total of 32.3 million cumulative views in the three weeks since its debut.
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[10/06/26 - 11:39 AM] Westbrook Studios and The Malar Group Launch Film and TV Slate, with the First Project "215," A Series Based on the Rise of DJ Jazzy Jeff & The Fresh Prince "215" is set in West Philadelphia in the late 1980s and follows a quick-witted teenage rapper, the DJ who is his musical other half, and the friends who helped fuel the dream.
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[10/06/26 - 11:20 AM] Hit Detective Comedy "Ludwig" Starring David Mitchell and Anna Maxwell Martin Returns October 13 on BritBox The International Emmy Award-winning series broke viewership records again in the UK as the BBC's biggest scripted launch of the year with 9.1 million viewers tuning in for the premiere.
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[10/06/26 - 11:00 AM] Video: BBC America and BBC Studios Release Extended Trailer for the New Epic, Sir David Attenborough-Narrated Natural History Series, "Blue Planet III" The trailer features a new track produced by global popstar Jade, Academy Award winner Hans Zimmer, and composers Bleeding Fingers.
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[10/06/26 - 10:18 AM] Lifetime Greenlights New Ripped from the Headlines Movie, "She Married Her Murderer: The Susan Cox Powell Story" Starring Ricki Lake, Mike Dopud, and Matreya Scarrwener to Debut in 2027 Executive produced by Kara Feifer and Elisabeth Rohm of Rohm Feifer Entertainment, the film marks Rohm's return to directing for Lifetime.
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[10/06/26 - 10:15 AM] CBS Media Ventures Claims 8 of the Top 10 Most-Watched First-Run Syndicated Strips This Season "The Drew Barrymore Show" delivered its highest season premiere ever in total viewers, up 21% versus last season's premiere.
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[10/06/26 - 10:03 AM] Video: Tubi Drops Trailer for New Original Docuseries "Just One Before I Die" Featuring an Inside Look at the Buffalo Bills Fanbase The five-episode docuseries features interviews with Chad Michael Murray, Dion Dawkins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jim Kelly, Andre Reed, Adam Schefter, Nick Wright, and more.
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[10/06/26 - 10:00 AM] Video: Date, Trailer, Key Art Debut - Hulu's "Swipe Right on the Devil" "Swipe Right on the Devil" premieres October 22 with all three episodes on Hulu and Hulu on Disney+ for bundle subscribers in the US and on Disney+ internationally.
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[10/06/26 - 09:48 AM] Nashville Sets the Stage for New Season of HGTV's Hit Home Renovation Competition Series "Rock the Block" Slated for 2027 "Rock the Block," which attracted 16.4 million viewers across linear and streaming to its last run, will feature seven fresh episodes hosted by popular carpenter, craftsman and design expert Ty Pennington.
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[10/06/26 - 09:20 AM] Acorn TV Welcomes Frasier's Peri Gilpin as Guest Star in Highly Successful Brooke Shields-led Murder Mystery, "You're Killing Me" Gilpin will guest star as Allie's (Shields) sister, Audra Chandler, a critically acclaimed writer with more awards than William Faulkner.
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[10/06/26 - 09:16 AM] Michelle Dockery, Jessica Gunning, Genevieve O'Reilly and Quintessa Swindell Will Star in "Feral" Netflix's new seven episode survival drama is based on Shirley Conran's best-selling novel, "Savages."
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[10/06/26 - 09:01 AM] Video: Peacock Debuts Official Trailer & New Images for "The Good Daughter" Rose Byrne, Meghann Fahy, Brendan Gleeson, Olivia Williams, and Harper Steele star in the series, premiering November 12.
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[10/06/26 - 09:01 AM] Video: "All the Queen's Men" - Season 5 Part 2 - Official Trailer - Paramount+ With Madam's (Eva Marcille) life hanging by a thread and the shooter still at large, the dancers of Eden are left shaken and uncertain.
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[10/06/26 - 09:00 AM] New Docuseries "The Boy Who Stole Billions?" with Exclusive Interviews from Crypto FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Coming to Prime Video The three-part docuseries from Propagate will premiere in November.
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