 |
 |
[09/24/12 - 04:17 PM] The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 1: Only 32% of Network Shows Make It to a Second Season By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC) |
|
|
1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.
Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.
Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.
So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...
1. Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
In the past 13 seasons (that's 1999-2000 through 2011-2012), 892 new primetime series have launched on the major broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC and The CW). Of those, just 288 made it to a second season. That's a 32% survival rate. Don't believe us? Check out the hard data:
| season | abc | cbs | fox | nbc | upn | wb | cw | total |
| 1999-2000 | 3/12 (25%) | 6/12 (50%) | 2/12 (17%) | 5/15 (33%) | 1/7 (14%) | 5/10 (50%) | | 22/68 (32%) |
| 2000-2001 | 5/12 (42%) | 4/10 (40%) | 4/12 (33%) | 5/17 (29%) | 2/8 (25%) | 3/7 (43%) | | 23/66 (35%) |
| 2001-2002 | 4/16 (25%) | 4/11 (36%) | 5/17 (29%) | 7/15 (47%) | 2/5 (40%) | 4/11 (36%) | | 26/75 (35%) |
| 2002-2003 | 7/21 (33%) | 5/12 (42%) | 4/17 (24%) | 8/17 (47%) | 2/6 (33%) | 5/13 (38%) | | 31/86 (36%) |
| 2003-2004 | 2/17 (12%) | 4/8 (50%) | 7/22 (32%) | 3/11 (27%) | 2/9 (22%) | 4/11 (36%) | | 22/78 (28%) |
| 2004-2005 | 9/21 (43%) | 3/11 (27%) | 6/17 (35%) | 6/20 (30%) | 2/8 (25%) | 2/7 (29%) | | 28/84 (33%) |
| 2005-2006 | 2/17 (12%) | 6/12 (50%) | 4/11 (36%) | 3/16 (19%) | 1/5 (20%) | 1/8 (13%) | | 17/69 (25%) |
| 2006-2007 | 7/27 (26%) | 4/10 (40%) | 3/14 (21%) | 6/17 (35%) | | | 2/4 (50%) | 22/72 (31%) |
| 2007-2008 | 9/21 (43%) | 3/11 (27%) | 3/11 (27%) | 4/15 (27%) | | | 2/8 (25%) | 21/66 (32%) |
| 2008-2009 | 6/17 (35%) | 2/8 (25%) | 5/10 (50%) | 3/17 (18%) | | | 1/8 (13%) | 17/60 (28%) |
| 2009-2010 | 8/20 (40%) | 4/8 (50%) | 4/8 (50%) | 6/13 (46%) | | | 2/8 (25%) | 24/57 (42%) |
| 2010-2011 | 3/16 (19%) | 3/10 (30%) | 3/10 (30%) | 3/17 (18%) | | | 1/3 (33%) | 13/56 (23%) |
| 2011-2012* | 6/14 (43%) | 3/7 (43%) | 4/11 (36%) | 7/17 (41%) | | | 2/6 (33%) | 22/55 (40%) |
| total | 71/231 (31%) | 51/130 (39%) | 54/172 (31%) | 66/207 (32%) | 12/48 (25%) | 24/67 (36%) | 10/37 (27%) | 288/892 (32%) |
* does not include this summer's 15 newcomers as many of those fates are still in the air
That 32% survival rate is surprisingly universal as ABC, FOX and NBC are all on that baseline while CBS (39%) and The CW (27%) teeter on the opposite ends of the spectrum. We can also observe that no network has ever had better than a 50% survival rate in any given season. Likewise, we've seen both the worst (23% in 2010-2011) and the best (42% in 2009-2010) survival rates come to pass in recent years. (This past season's 40% rate will likely fall between 32%-35% once this summer's 15 newcomers are factored in.)
The takeaway here is this: with 47 series (and counting) due to premiere during the 2012-2013 season, history shows that only 15 will likely make it to a second season. So brace yourself, chances are the majority of the new shows you've added to your viewing schedule won't be back this time next year.
TOMORROW: Do shows that launch in September have a better chance of survival than any other month?
|
|
|
 [september 2012]  |
S |
M |
T |
W |
T |
F |
S |
| | | | | | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
 |
|
[09/23/26 - 10:02 AM] Video: "Bite Size Terror" - Official Trailer - Tubi Original A bite-sized horror anthology where seemingly harmless encounters, desires, and decisions take terrifying turns.
|
[09/23/26 - 10:01 AM] Video: "Jamie Foxx: Take Care of Yourself" - Official Trailer - Hulu "Jamie Foxx: Take Care of Yourself" delivers a much-needed dose of self-care in his most honest, evolved, and unforgettable chapter yet.
|
[09/23/26 - 10:01 AM] Video: "Shark Tank" - Season Premiere Wednesday, September 30 on ABC and Stream on Hulu It's time to ignite a spark for a new season of entrepreneurs stepping into the Tank!
|
[09/23/26 - 09:32 AM] "Be My Guest with Ina Garten" Is Back with Brand-New Episodes Filled with Special Guests, Good Food and Great Conversation The season kicks off with a visit from the creative, award-winning pastry chef Christina Tosi who joins Ina for a perfect day of cooking and conversation at the barn.
|
[09/23/26 - 09:01 AM] A24's "The Invite" Begins Streaming Exclusively on HBO Max October 23 The film stars Seth Rogen, Olivia Wilde, Penélope Cruz, and Edward Norton.
|
[09/23/26 - 09:00 AM] Video: AMC+ Unveils Sneak Peek at Highly Anticipated Revenge Thriller, "Kill Jackie," Starring and Executive Produced by Catherine Zeta-Jones The series' debut on AMC+ coincides with the streamer's limited time offer of a one-year subscription for $39.99, available now through October 12.
|
[09/23/26 - 08:31 AM] Netflix's "Chef's Table" Franchise Returns with Two New Seasons "Chef's Table: Icons" and "Chef's Table: Desserts" are both on tap.
|
[09/23/26 - 08:01 AM] Video: "Gamechangers: Mother/Athlete" - Official Trailer - The Roku Channel Five trailblazing WNBA players - Sheryl Swoopes, Bria Hartley, Skylar Diggins, Allison Feaster, and Natalie Achonwa - talk about the physical, emotional, and professional challenges of becoming mothers while competing at the highest level of the sport.
|
[09/23/26 - 07:31 AM] AMC Global Media's October Highlights Include "Kill Jackie," "Yaga," "V/H/S/Mixtape," "Signora Volpe" and More Other series premieres include "Archive X: Unexplained Phenomena" and "This is Not a Murder Mystery."
|
[09/23/26 - 07:26 AM] OWN Announces October Premiere Dates for Iyanla Vanzant's Two New OWN Spotlight Specials OWN Spotlight specials feature candid conversations and thought-provoking documentaries hosted by Oprah Winfrey and other creators, shining a light on the issues, stories, and achievements shaping Black communities.
|
[09/23/26 - 07:01 AM] Roku Launches New Live Sports Talk Series "Pregame with Matthew Berry" Produced by Berry's Fantasy Life, "Pregame with Matthew Berry" will stream Monday through Friday from 12:00 PM to 2:00 PM ET on The Roku Channel's Roku Sports Channel.
|
[09/23/26 - 06:11 AM] "CNBC Innovation Lab" Premieres on Saturday, September 26 at 4PM ET on CNBC Hosted by Jon Fortt, CNBC will debut an in-depth, one-hour special, "CNBC Innovation Lab," examining how artificial intelligence is reshaping the labor market and society, particularly for younger workers entering an AI-driven world.
|
[09/23/26 - 06:01 AM] Video: "Ray Gunn" - Official Trailer - Netflix In Metropia, a gigantic city in an alternate future as seen from 1939, private eye Raymond Gunn (Sam Rockwell) is drawn into a case involving aliens, murder and a multimedia star named Venus Nova (Scarlett Johansson).
|
[09/23/26 - 06:01 AM] Video: Apple TV Debuts Gripping Trailer for Season Two of Dark Comedy "Where's Wanda?" Season two will make its global debut on Apple TV with one episode on Wednesday, October 21, followed by a new episode weekly through December 9, 2026.
|
[09/23/26 - 06:01 AM] Video: "Masterplan" - Official Trailer - Prime Video Stealing the Mona Lisa, it's a family affair.
|
|
|
|