or


[10/03/12 - 10:22 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 8: New Shows on Average Lose 14% of Their Audience by Episode Two
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

8. New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.

Believe it or not, losing viewership is a common practice for new shows. Looking back at the 179 shows that have premiered on the broadcast networks in the past three years (9/8/09-8/13/12), on average 14.38% of their debut audiences go away by episode two*. By episode three: 19.99%. By episode four: 24.65%. In other words, a quarter of the viewers who tuned into a show's premiere likely won't be there when the fourth episode rolls out.

When you think about it though, those statistics shouldn't be much of a surprise. If - as we've been saying for the past week and counting - only 32% of new shows make it to a second season, it makes sense that most shows will hemorrhage their audience on their way to cancellation.

What is surprising is that even in success, very few shows will ever surpass their debut audiences. Of the aforementioned 179 shows, just 29% ultimately went on to surpass their opening numbers. Or on the flip side, 71% of new shows won't ever do better than their pilots. That includes comedies like "2 Broke Girls," "New Girl" and "Community." Dramas however have the longest odds: 76 dramas have premiered in the past three years, 17% of which never grew from their respective premieres. Among them: "The Vampire Diaries," "Parenthood" and "Blue Bloods."

The lesson here: if your favorite new show is losing viewers each week, that could actually prove to be normal.

PREVIOUSLY: 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.

TOMORROW: Do cable shows have better odds of survival?

* based on P2+ Live+SD Fast National Data





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[10/06/26 - 12:06 PM]
NBC Sports' 2026-27 Big Ten Men's and Women's Basketball Schedules Announced, Featuring 80+ Games on NBC, Peacock, and NBCSN
Defending national champion Michigan will make five appearances on Peacock and NBCSN this season.

[10/06/26 - 12:01 PM]
Netflix Top 10: Week of September 28 - "East of Eden" Triumphs to the No. 1 Spot in This Week's Top 10
"Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story" claimed the No. 2 spot on the list with 5.7 million views, with a total of 32.3 million cumulative views in the three weeks since its debut.

[10/06/26 - 11:39 AM]
Westbrook Studios and The Malar Group Launch Film and TV Slate, with the First Project "215," A Series Based on the Rise of DJ Jazzy Jeff & The Fresh Prince
"215" is set in West Philadelphia in the late 1980s and follows a quick-witted teenage rapper, the DJ who is his musical other half, and the friends who helped fuel the dream.

[10/06/26 - 11:20 AM]
Hit Detective Comedy "Ludwig" Starring David Mitchell and Anna Maxwell Martin Returns October 13 on BritBox
The International Emmy Award-winning series broke viewership records again in the UK as the BBC's biggest scripted launch of the year with 9.1 million viewers tuning in for the premiere.

[10/06/26 - 11:00 AM]
Video: BBC America and BBC Studios Release Extended Trailer for the New Epic, Sir David Attenborough-Narrated Natural History Series, "Blue Planet III"
The trailer features a new track produced by global popstar Jade, Academy Award winner Hans Zimmer, and composers Bleeding Fingers.

[10/06/26 - 10:18 AM]
Lifetime Greenlights New Ripped from the Headlines Movie, "She Married Her Murderer: The Susan Cox Powell Story" Starring Ricki Lake, Mike Dopud, and Matreya Scarrwener to Debut in 2027
Executive produced by Kara Feifer and Elisabeth Rohm of Rohm Feifer Entertainment, the film marks Rohm's return to directing for Lifetime.

[10/06/26 - 10:15 AM]
CBS Media Ventures Claims 8 of the Top 10 Most-Watched First-Run Syndicated Strips This Season
"The Drew Barrymore Show" delivered its highest season premiere ever in total viewers, up 21% versus last season's premiere.

[10/06/26 - 10:03 AM]
Video: Tubi Drops Trailer for New Original Docuseries "Just One Before I Die" Featuring an Inside Look at the Buffalo Bills Fanbase
The five-episode docuseries features interviews with Chad Michael Murray, Dion Dawkins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jim Kelly, Andre Reed, Adam Schefter, Nick Wright, and more.

[10/06/26 - 10:00 AM]
Video: Date, Trailer, Key Art Debut - Hulu's "Swipe Right on the Devil"
"Swipe Right on the Devil" premieres October 22 with all three episodes on Hulu and Hulu on Disney+ for bundle subscribers in the US and on Disney+ internationally.

[10/06/26 - 09:48 AM]
Nashville Sets the Stage for New Season of HGTV's Hit Home Renovation Competition Series "Rock the Block" Slated for 2027
"Rock the Block," which attracted 16.4 million viewers across linear and streaming to its last run, will feature seven fresh episodes hosted by popular carpenter, craftsman and design expert Ty Pennington.

[10/06/26 - 09:20 AM]
Acorn TV Welcomes Frasier's Peri Gilpin as Guest Star in Highly Successful Brooke Shields-led Murder Mystery, "You're Killing Me"
Gilpin will guest star as Allie's (Shields) sister, Audra Chandler, a critically acclaimed writer with more awards than William Faulkner.

[10/06/26 - 09:16 AM]
Michelle Dockery, Jessica Gunning, Genevieve O'Reilly and Quintessa Swindell Will Star in "Feral"
Netflix's new seven episode survival drama is based on Shirley Conran's best-selling novel, "Savages."

[10/06/26 - 09:01 AM]
Video: Peacock Debuts Official Trailer & New Images for "The Good Daughter"
Rose Byrne, Meghann Fahy, Brendan Gleeson, Olivia Williams, and Harper Steele star in the series, premiering November 12.

[10/06/26 - 09:01 AM]
Video: "All the Queen's Men" - Season 5 Part 2 - Official Trailer - Paramount+
With Madam's (Eva Marcille) life hanging by a thread and the shooter still at large, the dancers of Eden are left shaken and uncertain.

[10/06/26 - 09:00 AM]
New Docuseries "The Boy Who Stole Billions?" with Exclusive Interviews from Crypto FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Coming to Prime Video
The three-part docuseries from Propagate will premiere in November.