or


[10/03/12 - 10:22 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 8: New Shows on Average Lose 14% of Their Audience by Episode Two
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

8. New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.

Believe it or not, losing viewership is a common practice for new shows. Looking back at the 179 shows that have premiered on the broadcast networks in the past three years (9/8/09-8/13/12), on average 14.38% of their debut audiences go away by episode two*. By episode three: 19.99%. By episode four: 24.65%. In other words, a quarter of the viewers who tuned into a show's premiere likely won't be there when the fourth episode rolls out.

When you think about it though, those statistics shouldn't be much of a surprise. If - as we've been saying for the past week and counting - only 32% of new shows make it to a second season, it makes sense that most shows will hemorrhage their audience on their way to cancellation.

What is surprising is that even in success, very few shows will ever surpass their debut audiences. Of the aforementioned 179 shows, just 29% ultimately went on to surpass their opening numbers. Or on the flip side, 71% of new shows won't ever do better than their pilots. That includes comedies like "2 Broke Girls," "New Girl" and "Community." Dramas however have the longest odds: 76 dramas have premiered in the past three years, 17% of which never grew from their respective premieres. Among them: "The Vampire Diaries," "Parenthood" and "Blue Bloods."

The lesson here: if your favorite new show is losing viewers each week, that could actually prove to be normal.

PREVIOUSLY: 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.

TOMORROW: Do cable shows have better odds of survival?

* based on P2+ Live+SD Fast National Data





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[10/02/26 - 11:00 AM]
Video: Summer May Be Over, But the Beach Is Just Heating Up - Watch the All-New "Baywatch" Teaser Promos
"Baywatch" premieres this January on FOX and next day Hulu.

[10/02/26 - 10:24 AM]
Video: "Wingman" - Official Trailer - ALLBLK
Sophie and Tyler spend their lives making sure everyone else around them finds love. Little did they know that finding love for each other was going to be harder than they thought.

[10/02/26 - 10:00 AM]
TNT Sports to Be Exclusive Home of 2026 American League Division Series & American League Championship Series
This Saturday, October 3, seven-time All-Star José Ramírez and Steven Kwan will lead the Cleveland Guardians against Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas and the Chicago White Sox in a division rival showdown.

[10/02/26 - 09:03 AM]
A Night of Mystery! New Series "History's Mystery Files" & A New Season of "The Curse of Oak Island" Premieres Nov. 10
Hosted by actor and comedian Jorge Garcia, each episode of "History's Mystery Files" follows the clues, the evidence, and the questions that refuse to go away.

[10/02/26 - 09:01 AM]
"The Watcher" Season Two to Begin Production, with Naomi Watts & Bobby Cannavale Returning
Margo Martindale and Isabel Gravitt will also reprise their roles in the hit Netflix series from Ryan Murphy and Ian Brennan.

[10/02/26 - 08:01 AM]
Video: "The Forsytes" Season 2 Preview
Secrets, ambition, and forbidden passions collide as "The Forsytes" returns for an explosive Season 2, only on "Masterpiece" on PBS in 2027.

[10/02/26 - 07:31 AM]
Netflix Has Officially Renewed "A Different World" for Its Sophomore Season
"A Different World" debuted at #4 in the Global Top 10 English TV list, earning 4.2 million views and hit the Top 10 in 15 countries.

[10/02/26 - 07:01 AM]
Video: New Animated Sports-Fantasy Series "Messi and the Giants," from Executive Producer Lionel Messi, Debuts First Look at San Diego Comic-Con Malaga, Coming to Disney+ and Disney Channel Summer 2027
Argentinian actor Milo Burgess-Webb will voice the role of Leo in the series.

[10/02/26 - 06:13 AM]
No Time Like FOXtober: FOX Sports' Star-Studded MLB Postseason Coverage Highlighted by Baseball's Biggest Names
FOX Sports begins its Postseason coverage Saturday, October 3 at 4:00 PM ET on FOX, FOX Deportes and FOX One as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Atlanta Braves.

[10/02/26 - 04:01 AM]
Netflix Unveils Its New Competitive Reality Show, "Plex: Ultima Partida"
In the competitive strategy reality show, a group of renowned players arrive on a remote island at Plex's invitation, where they will compete for victory and a substantial cash prize.

[10/02/26 - 12:01 AM]
Video: "A Couple of Lies" - Official Trailer - Netflix
A seemingly idyllic home swap between Sicily and Stockholm turns toxic as two wealthy couples go to extremes to protect themselves - and their secrets.

[10/01/26 - 09:30 PM]
"Big Brother" Crowns Its Season 28 Winner and Announces Renewal Through Season 30 in Tonight's Live Finale
The milestone 28th season delivered 14.8 billion minutes watched, up +9% from last summer; averaged 5.1 million viewers in seven-day multiplatform viewing, up +8% year-over-year.

[10/01/26 - 04:37 PM]
Eddie Murphy to Star in His First Scripted Television Series, "The Chairman," at Peacock
"The Chairman" comes from nine-time Emmy Award-winning writer Matthew Weiner, the showrunner and creator behind the critically beloved series "Mad Men" and executive producer and writer on the iconic drama series "The Sopranos."

[10/01/26 - 02:39 PM]
NHL on ESPN Opens Season with Year-Over-Year Viewership Growth
The Panthers-Hurricanes matchup averaged 859,000 viewers, up 16% from a year ago.

[10/01/26 - 02:18 PM]
Tuesday's Red Sox-Yankees on NBC & Peacock Is Most-Watched Game 1 Among MLB Wild Card or Division Series Since 2006
Coverage averaged 7.3 million viewers on NBC and Peacock.