or


[10/03/12 - 10:22 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 8: New Shows on Average Lose 14% of Their Audience by Episode Two
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

8. New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.

Believe it or not, losing viewership is a common practice for new shows. Looking back at the 179 shows that have premiered on the broadcast networks in the past three years (9/8/09-8/13/12), on average 14.38% of their debut audiences go away by episode two*. By episode three: 19.99%. By episode four: 24.65%. In other words, a quarter of the viewers who tuned into a show's premiere likely won't be there when the fourth episode rolls out.

When you think about it though, those statistics shouldn't be much of a surprise. If - as we've been saying for the past week and counting - only 32% of new shows make it to a second season, it makes sense that most shows will hemorrhage their audience on their way to cancellation.

What is surprising is that even in success, very few shows will ever surpass their debut audiences. Of the aforementioned 179 shows, just 29% ultimately went on to surpass their opening numbers. Or on the flip side, 71% of new shows won't ever do better than their pilots. That includes comedies like "2 Broke Girls," "New Girl" and "Community." Dramas however have the longest odds: 76 dramas have premiered in the past three years, 17% of which never grew from their respective premieres. Among them: "The Vampire Diaries," "Parenthood" and "Blue Bloods."

The lesson here: if your favorite new show is losing viewers each week, that could actually prove to be normal.

PREVIOUSLY: 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.

TOMORROW: Do cable shows have better odds of survival?

* based on P2+ Live+SD Fast National Data





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[06/26/16 - 09:01 AM]
Saturday's Broadcast Ratings: ABC Tops Viewers, Splits Demo Crown with NBC
The Alphabet's "In an Instant" and the Peacock's "U.S. Olympic Trials" coverage lead the night among adults 18-49.

[06/26/16 - 08:47 AM]
NBC Ties for the Saturday Primetime Win as Men's Gymnastics Scores a 7-Week Slot High
NBC spins the numbers for Saturday, June 25.

[06/25/16 - 08:55 AM]
Friday's Broadcast Ratings: ABC Wins Low Key Demo Race
ABC, NBC and CBS all finish within a few ticks among adults 18-49.

[06/25/16 - 08:27 AM]
Women's Gymnastics Championship Grows 80% Vs. Year-Ago Saturday Telecast
NBC spins the numbers for Friday, June 24.

[06/24/16 - 02:59 PM]
Netflix Announces Premiere Date for "Haters Back Off"
All eight episodes of will premiere globally on October 14 at 12:01am PST exclusively on Netflix.

[06/24/16 - 02:08 PM]
TLC Brings Back "A Baby Story" in a Whole New Way
TLC reinvented "A Baby Story" by bringing a live birth to Facebook in an unprecedented event early this morning with "A Baby Story Live."

[06/24/16 - 12:03 PM]
Travel Channel's "Expedition Unknown" Posts Highest-Rated Episode of Second Season
Travel Channel spins the numbers for Wednesday, June 22.

[06/24/16 - 11:23 AM]
Video: HBO's "High Maintenance" Tease & Photo - Debuts this Fall
The half-hour comedy series follows a Brooklyn pot dealer who delivers to clients with neuroses as diverse as the city.

[06/24/16 - 11:08 AM]
James Earl Joins "Scream Queens" in the Series Regular Role of "Candy Striper"
Set in a hospital, where some of the most fascinating and bizarre medical cases are under observation, Earl is one of the new male leads opposite recently announced Emmy Award nominee John Stamos and Taylor Lautner.

[06/24/16 - 10:51 AM]
Hulu's Fall 2016 Slate
The streaming service confirms dates for "The Mindy Project" (October 4), "Chance" (October 19), "Shut Eye" (December 7) and more!

[06/24/16 - 09:30 AM]
"Good Witch" Season Finale Delivers Hallmark Channel's Highest-Rated and Most-Watched Episode of the Season
The Hallmark Channel further spins the numbers for Sunday, June 19.

[06/24/16 - 09:01 AM]
Thursday's Broadcast Ratings: "Big Brother" Sparks CBS Victory
The Eye claims the top spot in both total viewers and adults 18-49.

[06/24/16 - 08:32 AM]
Third Season of Emmy-Nominated Amazon Original Series "Annedroids" is Now Available on Prime Video
The series spotlights, through trial and error, how science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) can inspire children to do great things.

[06/24/16 - 08:23 AM]
Queen Latifah and Flavor Unit Tap Actor Anthony Anderson to Reveal "The Best Place To Be" in New Travel Channel Series
The series follows Hollywood's hottest A-List celebrities as they share the best places to eat, drink, shop and sightsee at their most favorite international destinations.

[06/24/16 - 07:30 AM]
VH1's Hit Series "Basketball Wives LA" Returns Sunday July 17th at 9:00 PM ET/PT
Returning cast members include Shaunie O'Neal, Tami Roman, Jackie Christie, Malaysia Pargo, Brandi Maxiell and Angel Brinks.