or


[10/03/12 - 10:22 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 8: New Shows on Average Lose 14% of Their Audience by Episode Two
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

8. New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.

Believe it or not, losing viewership is a common practice for new shows. Looking back at the 179 shows that have premiered on the broadcast networks in the past three years (9/8/09-8/13/12), on average 14.38% of their debut audiences go away by episode two*. By episode three: 19.99%. By episode four: 24.65%. In other words, a quarter of the viewers who tuned into a show's premiere likely won't be there when the fourth episode rolls out.

When you think about it though, those statistics shouldn't be much of a surprise. If - as we've been saying for the past week and counting - only 32% of new shows make it to a second season, it makes sense that most shows will hemorrhage their audience on their way to cancellation.

What is surprising is that even in success, very few shows will ever surpass their debut audiences. Of the aforementioned 179 shows, just 29% ultimately went on to surpass their opening numbers. Or on the flip side, 71% of new shows won't ever do better than their pilots. That includes comedies like "2 Broke Girls," "New Girl" and "Community." Dramas however have the longest odds: 76 dramas have premiered in the past three years, 17% of which never grew from their respective premieres. Among them: "The Vampire Diaries," "Parenthood" and "Blue Bloods."

The lesson here: if your favorite new show is losing viewers each week, that could actually prove to be normal.

PREVIOUSLY: 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.

TOMORROW: Do cable shows have better odds of survival?

* based on P2+ Live+SD Fast National Data





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[09/22/26 - 12:16 PM]
Netflix's "Crew Girl" Renewed for Season 2
Season 1 of the coming-of-age teen drama series launched on September 10 and debuted in the Netflix English TV Top 10, where it has remained since its release, climbing up to #2 this week.

[09/22/26 - 12:01 PM]
Netflix Top 10: Week of September 14 - "Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married Again?" Holds No. 1 for a Second Week
"Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story" debuted at the top of the English TV list with 12.1 million views.

[09/22/26 - 12:00 PM]
"Dateline" Is the #1 Friday Newsmagazine in Both Key Demos for Second Consecutive Broadcast Season
The broadcast remains the #1 most-watched news magazine franchise and #1 most-watched true-crime franchise in total linear minutes watched for the season, with 151.2 million total viewers, up +4% vs. last season.

[09/22/26 - 11:01 AM]
"Darkwing Duck" Is Back with an All-New Animated Series Greenlit for Disney+
Mark Hamill, Seth Rogen, Lizzy Caplan and Lilimar lead the show's voice cast.

[09/22/26 - 10:31 AM]
Video: Trailer Available - Hulu Original "Reasonable Doubt" Season 4
Season 4 will debut with a three-episode premiere on October 6, with a new episode premiering each Tuesday through November 24 exclusively on Disney+ and Hulu.

[09/22/26 - 10:01 AM]
Video: "Vampirina: Teenage Vampire" Season 2 Lets It All Fang Out with New Trailer
The series returns October 6 on Disney Channel, and the full season will stream the next day on Disney+.

[09/22/26 - 09:33 AM]
Great American Media Unveils the Greatest Slate of Christmas Movies Ever Assembled for a Single Season
Leading the extraordinary lineup is the beloved "Queen of Christmas," Candace Cameron Bure, who stars in two films and serves as executive producer of a third movie.

[09/22/26 - 09:01 AM]
Video: "Norm: The Tale of Norm Macdonald" - Official Trailer - Netflix
Go down a wormhole in this documentary on master of deadpan humor Norm Macdonald, whose life and career were uncompromising yet full of contradictions.

[09/22/26 - 09:01 AM]
"Soulm8te" Kicks Off Huluween Thursday, October 1
Unnerving, sexy, suspenseful, and darkly compelling, the film follows a grieving engineer tasked with testing a ruthless tech giant's new artificially intelligent android.

[09/22/26 - 09:00 AM]
ESPN and Omaha Productions Announce ESPN Original Series "The Breakdown" Hosted by Peyton Manning and Luke Kuechly
New episodes will debut Fridays on the ESPN App, with select episodes also airing on ESPN.

[09/22/26 - 09:00 AM]
George Michael Tribute Set for the "2026 MTV Video Music Awards (VMAs)" Sunday, Sept. 27 on CBS
Raye, Sombr, and Teddy Swims will come together for a tribute performance to honor musical genius and icon.

[09/22/26 - 08:11 AM]
BET Launches aTwist Microseries Partnership with Psychological Thriller "Her Baby," Premiering Wednesday, October 7 at 10 P.M. ET/CT on BET
The reformatted microseries will be presented in half-hour installments and aired in a horizontal format.

[09/22/26 - 08:10 AM]
MGM+ Greenlights Crime Thriller "Rules of Prey" Starring Jensen Ackles
The project is an adaptation of Pulitzer-Prize-winning journalist John Sandford's acclaimed book series.

[09/22/26 - 08:01 AM]
Video: Watch the Gripping Trailer for "Clown Panic," The Chilling New Documentary Coming Exclusively to Hulu on October 12, 2026
Featuring chilling archive footage, viral internet videos and revealing interviews with witnesses, law enforcement, clowns and cultural commentators, "Clown Panic" examines the collision of fear, social media and modern America at a moment of deep national anxiety.

[09/22/26 - 07:46 AM]
AMC Global Media to Debut Crime Drama "Smilla's Sense of Snow," from ITV Studios and Constantin Film, in U.S and Canada on AMC+
The modern adaptation of Peter Høeg's worldwide bestseller stars Filippa Coster-Waldau, Elyas M'Barek and Henry Lloyd-Hughes, and is directed by BAFTA Winner Amma Asante.