or


[10/03/12 - 10:22 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 8: New Shows on Average Lose 14% of Their Audience by Episode Two
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

8. New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.

Believe it or not, losing viewership is a common practice for new shows. Looking back at the 179 shows that have premiered on the broadcast networks in the past three years (9/8/09-8/13/12), on average 14.38% of their debut audiences go away by episode two*. By episode three: 19.99%. By episode four: 24.65%. In other words, a quarter of the viewers who tuned into a show's premiere likely won't be there when the fourth episode rolls out.

When you think about it though, those statistics shouldn't be much of a surprise. If - as we've been saying for the past week and counting - only 32% of new shows make it to a second season, it makes sense that most shows will hemorrhage their audience on their way to cancellation.

What is surprising is that even in success, very few shows will ever surpass their debut audiences. Of the aforementioned 179 shows, just 29% ultimately went on to surpass their opening numbers. Or on the flip side, 71% of new shows won't ever do better than their pilots. That includes comedies like "2 Broke Girls," "New Girl" and "Community." Dramas however have the longest odds: 76 dramas have premiered in the past three years, 17% of which never grew from their respective premieres. Among them: "The Vampire Diaries," "Parenthood" and "Blue Bloods."

The lesson here: if your favorite new show is losing viewers each week, that could actually prove to be normal.

PREVIOUSLY: 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.

TOMORROW: Do cable shows have better odds of survival?

* based on P2+ Live+SD Fast National Data





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[10/12/26 - 08:02 AM]
Video: "The Body" - Official Trailer - Netflix
On Halloween night, an all-girls dance squad tumbles into Catholic guilt, unholy desires and ghostly visions when an initiation goes to hell.

[10/12/26 - 08:01 AM]
Video: "Marcos: Another World Is Possible" - Official Trailer - Netflix
In 1994, a masked man became the face of the Zapatista uprising. Through Subcomandante Marcos, this documentary explores the movement's resistance today.

[10/12/26 - 07:01 AM]
Video: "A Dog's Perfect Christmas" - Official Trailer - Netflix
When a medical emergency pulls the Goss family apart, determined dog Winstead will do all he can to bring his humans back together before Christmas Eve.

[10/12/26 - 07:01 AM]
Video: "Common Side Effects" - Season 2 Teaser - Adult Swim
Sneak peek at the new season coming January 24 on Adult Swim, next day on HBO Max.

[10/12/26 - 07:00 AM]
Luc Besson's "Dracula" to Make Streaming Debut on Paramount+ October 12
Caleb Landry Jones, Christoph Waltz, and Zoë Bleu star in the reimagining of Bram Stoker's iconic story.

[10/12/26 - 06:31 AM]
TNT Sports' 2026 MLB American League Championship Series Coverage to Begin Monday, Oct. 12
For the tenth consecutive year, Brian Anderson will provide play-by-play for the Championship Series coverage for TNT Sports.

[10/12/26 - 05:01 AM]
Video: "The Mosquito Bowl" - Official Trailer - Netflix
Trained for glory, called to war... Following the attack on Pearl Harbor, four of America's top college football stars set their fame aside to enlist in the Marines.

[10/12/26 - 12:31 AM]
Video: "The Riot" - Official Teaser - Netflix
1989 in a newly democratic Poland. A hardened prisoner and a politician on the rise must race to avert bloodshed at Mroki prison, where old ways die hard.

[10/11/26 - 11:45 AM]
Global Book Franchise "Artemis Fowl" Greenlit for Animated Television Series on Disney Channel and Disney+
Author Eoin Colfer announced the news during the "25 Years of Artemis Fowl" panel at New York Comic Con.

[10/11/26 - 11:28 AM]
Meet Alex Holland When "The Rookie North" Premieres Wednesday, January 6 on ABC
Look for Season 9 of "The Rookie" at 9:00/8:00c followed by the debut of "The Rookie North" at 10:00/9:00c.

[10/11/26 - 10:15 AM]
Tubi Announces Next Film in Continued Partnership with R.L. Stine with Adaptation of "The Babysitter"
Desperate to earn enough money for a prestigious writing program, sixteen-year-old Jenny takes a babysitting job despite a prowler terrorizing girls across town.

[10/11/26 - 07:01 AM]
Video: 2026 Netflix Holiday Trailer Week - Official Teaser - Netflix
Whether you're in the mood for a family story on four legs, a romance with security clearance, a Christmas miracle with a choir of legends, or a holiday déjà vu you can't shake - the holidays start on Netflix.

[10/11/26 - 12:08 AM]
FOX Entertainment Global Accelerates Worldwide Expansion of Hit Survival Format "Extracted" with New Malaysia Production Hub
The new hub, where season three of FOX's U.S. network series just wrapped, combines one of the world's most dramatic natural survival environments with a specialized, state-of-the-art production ecosystem designed specifically for international format licensees.

[10/10/26 - 04:45 PM]
Video: Prime Video Unveils New Trailer for "Blade Runner 2099" at New York Comic Con
All eight episodes will premiere on November 25, 2026, exclusively on Prime Video in more than 240 countries and territories worldwide.

[10/10/26 - 03:56 PM]
"Percy Jackson and the Olympians" Returns to New York Comic-Con with Walker Scobell on the Main Stage to Talk Season Three
During the panel, Scobell announced that season three will have a two-episode premiere on November 20, followed by two new episodes dropping each week on Disney+ and Hulu.