or


[10/03/12 - 10:22 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 8: New Shows on Average Lose 14% of Their Audience by Episode Two
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

8. New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.

Believe it or not, losing viewership is a common practice for new shows. Looking back at the 179 shows that have premiered on the broadcast networks in the past three years (9/8/09-8/13/12), on average 14.38% of their debut audiences go away by episode two*. By episode three: 19.99%. By episode four: 24.65%. In other words, a quarter of the viewers who tuned into a show's premiere likely won't be there when the fourth episode rolls out.

When you think about it though, those statistics shouldn't be much of a surprise. If - as we've been saying for the past week and counting - only 32% of new shows make it to a second season, it makes sense that most shows will hemorrhage their audience on their way to cancellation.

What is surprising is that even in success, very few shows will ever surpass their debut audiences. Of the aforementioned 179 shows, just 29% ultimately went on to surpass their opening numbers. Or on the flip side, 71% of new shows won't ever do better than their pilots. That includes comedies like "2 Broke Girls," "New Girl" and "Community." Dramas however have the longest odds: 76 dramas have premiered in the past three years, 17% of which never grew from their respective premieres. Among them: "The Vampire Diaries," "Parenthood" and "Blue Bloods."

The lesson here: if your favorite new show is losing viewers each week, that could actually prove to be normal.

PREVIOUSLY: 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.

TOMORROW: Do cable shows have better odds of survival?

* based on P2+ Live+SD Fast National Data





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[10/07/26 - 08:01 AM]
Video: Official Season 4 Trailer #2 - "Reasonable Doubt"
After a brutal attack leaves Jax's family and newly minted law firm shaken, nothing feels certain, especially their future.

[10/07/26 - 08:00 AM]
Disney+ to Stream Super Bowl LXI, Joining ESPN and ABC to Give Fans More Ways to Watch
In addition to Super Bowl LXI, two "Monday Night Football" regular-season games will be available to Disney+ subscribers in the lead-up to the big game.

[10/07/26 - 07:01 AM]
Video: "North of North" Season 2 - Official Trailer - Netflix
Recharged and ready for her next chapter, Siaja leans on Ice Cove's tight-knit community to level up her life and build a future on her own terms.

[10/07/26 - 06:31 AM]
Video: "On Behalf of My Son" - Official Trailer - Netflix
After losing her son - a bus driver - in an accident, Vicentina seeks out the families of all the victims, determined to ask for forgiveness while grappling with her own grief.

[10/07/26 - 03:01 AM]
Video: "The Empress" Season 3 - Official Trailer - Netflix
With her marriage and the empire facing new hardships, Elisabeth is drawn down a path that will forever alter her life and the future of Europe.

[10/06/26 - 04:01 PM]
Netflix's "Solo Leveling" Adds Han So-hee, Kang You-seok, Sung Joon and More to Its Cast
The live-action adaptation follows Sung Jin-woo as he faces deadly challenges, awakens his full potential, and rises from the weakest Hunter to the world's most powerful in his quest to protect humanity from the monsters lurking beyond mysterious gates.

[10/06/26 - 03:03 PM]
"College GameDay Built by The Home Depot" Scores Season-High Viewership from Iowa City
Plus: ABC won the Saturday noon and primetime windows in Week 5.

[10/06/26 - 02:50 PM]
FOX NFL Scores 19,149,000 Viewers in Week 4 Singleheader
Coverage was up +7% over last year's comparable delivery.

[10/06/26 - 02:05 PM]
Skydance Announces Board, Adding Ynon Kreiz, Laurene Powell Jobs and Bobby Kotick as Directors and Tony Blair as Advisor
David Ellison will chair the Board and continue to serve as Skydance's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

[10/06/26 - 12:06 PM]
NBC Sports' 2026-27 Big Ten Men's and Women's Basketball Schedules Announced, Featuring 80+ Games on NBC, Peacock, and NBCSN
Defending national champion Michigan will make five appearances on Peacock and NBCSN this season.

[10/06/26 - 12:01 PM]
Netflix Top 10: Week of September 28 - "East of Eden" Triumphs to the No. 1 Spot in This Week's Top 10
"Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story" claimed the No. 2 spot on the list with 5.7 million views, with a total of 32.3 million cumulative views in the three weeks since its debut.

[10/06/26 - 11:39 AM]
Westbrook Studios and The Malar Group Launch Film and TV Slate, with the First Project "215," A Series Based on the Rise of DJ Jazzy Jeff & The Fresh Prince
"215" is set in West Philadelphia in the late 1980s and follows a quick-witted teenage rapper, the DJ who is his musical other half, and the friends who helped fuel the dream.

[10/06/26 - 11:20 AM]
Hit Detective Comedy "Ludwig" Starring David Mitchell and Anna Maxwell Martin Returns October 13 on BritBox
The International Emmy Award-winning series broke viewership records again in the UK as the BBC's biggest scripted launch of the year with 9.1 million viewers tuning in for the premiere.

[10/06/26 - 11:00 AM]
Video: BBC America and BBC Studios Release Extended Trailer for the New Epic, Sir David Attenborough-Narrated Natural History Series, "Blue Planet III"
The trailer features a new track produced by global popstar Jade, Academy Award winner Hans Zimmer, and composers Bleeding Fingers.

[10/06/26 - 10:18 AM]
Lifetime Greenlights New Ripped from the Headlines Movie, "She Married Her Murderer: The Susan Cox Powell Story" Starring Ricki Lake, Mike Dopud, and Matreya Scarrwener to Debut in 2027
Executive produced by Kara Feifer and Elisabeth Rohm of Rohm Feifer Entertainment, the film marks Rohm's return to directing for Lifetime.