or


[10/03/12 - 10:22 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 8: New Shows on Average Lose 14% of Their Audience by Episode Two
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

8. New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.

Believe it or not, losing viewership is a common practice for new shows. Looking back at the 179 shows that have premiered on the broadcast networks in the past three years (9/8/09-8/13/12), on average 14.38% of their debut audiences go away by episode two*. By episode three: 19.99%. By episode four: 24.65%. In other words, a quarter of the viewers who tuned into a show's premiere likely won't be there when the fourth episode rolls out.

When you think about it though, those statistics shouldn't be much of a surprise. If - as we've been saying for the past week and counting - only 32% of new shows make it to a second season, it makes sense that most shows will hemorrhage their audience on their way to cancellation.

What is surprising is that even in success, very few shows will ever surpass their debut audiences. Of the aforementioned 179 shows, just 29% ultimately went on to surpass their opening numbers. Or on the flip side, 71% of new shows won't ever do better than their pilots. That includes comedies like "2 Broke Girls," "New Girl" and "Community." Dramas however have the longest odds: 76 dramas have premiered in the past three years, 17% of which never grew from their respective premieres. Among them: "The Vampire Diaries," "Parenthood" and "Blue Bloods."

The lesson here: if your favorite new show is losing viewers each week, that could actually prove to be normal.

PREVIOUSLY: 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.

TOMORROW: Do cable shows have better odds of survival?

* based on P2+ Live+SD Fast National Data





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[09/23/26 - 08:01 AM]
Video: "Gamechangers: Mother/Athlete" - Official Trailer - The Roku Channel
Five trailblazing WNBA players - Sheryl Swoopes, Bria Hartley, Skylar Diggins, Allison Feaster, and Natalie Achonwa - talk about the physical, emotional, and professional challenges of becoming mothers while competing at the highest level of the sport.

[09/23/26 - 07:31 AM]
AMC Global Media's October Highlights Include "Kill Jackie," "Yaga," "V/H/S/Mixtape," "Signora Volpe" and More
Other series premieres include "Archive X: Unexplained Phenomena" and "This is Not a Murder Mystery."

[09/23/26 - 07:26 AM]
OWN Announces October Premiere Dates for Iyanla Vanzant's Two New OWN Spotlight Specials
OWN Spotlight specials feature candid conversations and thought-provoking documentaries hosted by Oprah Winfrey and other creators, shining a light on the issues, stories, and achievements shaping Black communities.

[09/23/26 - 07:01 AM]
Roku Launches New Live Sports Talk Series "Pregame with Matthew Berry"
Produced by Berry's Fantasy Life, "Pregame with Matthew Berry" will stream Monday through Friday from 12:00 PM to 2:00 PM ET on The Roku Channel's Roku Sports Channel.

[09/23/26 - 06:11 AM]
"CNBC Innovation Lab" Premieres on Saturday, September 26 at 4PM ET on CNBC
Hosted by Jon Fortt, CNBC will debut an in-depth, one-hour special, "CNBC Innovation Lab," examining how artificial intelligence is reshaping the labor market and society, particularly for younger workers entering an AI-driven world.

[09/23/26 - 06:01 AM]
Video: "Ray Gunn" - Official Trailer - Netflix
In Metropia, a gigantic city in an alternate future as seen from 1939, private eye Raymond Gunn (Sam Rockwell) is drawn into a case involving aliens, murder and a multimedia star named Venus Nova (Scarlett Johansson).

[09/23/26 - 06:01 AM]
Video: Apple TV Debuts Gripping Trailer for Season Two of Dark Comedy "Where's Wanda?"
Season two will make its global debut on Apple TV with one episode on Wednesday, October 21, followed by a new episode weekly through December 9, 2026.

[09/23/26 - 06:01 AM]
Video: "Masterplan" - Official Trailer - Prime Video
Stealing the Mona Lisa, it's a family affair.

[09/23/26 - 12:01 AM]
Netflix Announces Start of Production for "High Tides: The Film"
The film is the sequel to the popular series "High Tides," whose three seasons together spent over 24 weeks in the Dutch Netflix Top 10.

[09/22/26 - 04:15 PM]
Inside the Most Daring Jewel Theft in History, "Heist at the Louvre," New Podcast from "20/20" and the ABC News Podcast Network, Premieres Monday, Sept. 28
The series unpacks how thieves were able to pull off one of the most daring jewel heists in history, with host James Longman following the investigation and its aftermath to try to answer the central question: Where are the crown jewels now?

[09/22/26 - 03:08 PM]
Record-Breaking Week 3: ESPN/ABC Claim Every Saturday Window; "College GameDay" Continues Historic Start to the Season
ESPN networks delivered the top five most-watched games of Week 3 and accounted for two-thirds of all college football viewing.

[09/22/26 - 02:34 PM]
FOX's "America's Game of the Week" Scores Regular Season High 27,212,000 Viewers in Week 2
Said coverage was up +8% vs. last year's full season average of 25,269,000 viewers.

[09/22/26 - 02:17 PM]
Colts-Chiefs Overtime Thriller Is Most Watched Week 2 NBC "Sunday Night Football" Game Since 2015, Averaging 24.3 Million Viewers on NBC & Peacock
The audience for Colts-Chiefs peaked at 27.4 million viewers on NBC and Peacock in the second quarter (9:15-9:30 p.m. ET).

[09/22/26 - 12:16 PM]
Netflix's "Crew Girl" Renewed for Season 2
Season 1 of the coming-of-age teen drama series launched on September 10 and debuted in the Netflix English TV Top 10, where it has remained since its release, climbing up to #2 this week.

[09/22/26 - 12:02 PM]
Netflix to Live-Stream STARTO ENTERTAINMENT's New Year's Eve Countdown Concert Worldwide for the First Time
This concert began in 1996 as a charity event supporting recovery efforts following the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, and has since become an annual tradition for artists and fans to close out and welcome the new year together.