or


[10/03/12 - 10:22 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 8: New Shows on Average Lose 14% of Their Audience by Episode Two
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

8. New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.

Believe it or not, losing viewership is a common practice for new shows. Looking back at the 179 shows that have premiered on the broadcast networks in the past three years (9/8/09-8/13/12), on average 14.38% of their debut audiences go away by episode two*. By episode three: 19.99%. By episode four: 24.65%. In other words, a quarter of the viewers who tuned into a show's premiere likely won't be there when the fourth episode rolls out.

When you think about it though, those statistics shouldn't be much of a surprise. If - as we've been saying for the past week and counting - only 32% of new shows make it to a second season, it makes sense that most shows will hemorrhage their audience on their way to cancellation.

What is surprising is that even in success, very few shows will ever surpass their debut audiences. Of the aforementioned 179 shows, just 29% ultimately went on to surpass their opening numbers. Or on the flip side, 71% of new shows won't ever do better than their pilots. That includes comedies like "2 Broke Girls," "New Girl" and "Community." Dramas however have the longest odds: 76 dramas have premiered in the past three years, 17% of which never grew from their respective premieres. Among them: "The Vampire Diaries," "Parenthood" and "Blue Bloods."

The lesson here: if your favorite new show is losing viewers each week, that could actually prove to be normal.

PREVIOUSLY: 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.

TOMORROW: Do cable shows have better odds of survival?

* based on P2+ Live+SD Fast National Data





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[09/30/26 - 01:07 PM]
Chairman and CEO David Ellison Announces Ynon Kreiz Co-CEO of the Anticipated Combined Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery at Closing to Help Build the Next-Generation Global Media Company
Upon closing, Ellison will remain Chairman and CEO of the newly combined company, and Kreiz will serve as Co-CEO and join the Board of Directors.

[09/30/26 - 01:00 PM]
Historic "Big Brother" Season Hits 14.8 Billion Minutes Viewed, Up +9% from Last Year
The summer staple also saw year-over-year audience growth, averaging 5.1 million viewers in seven-day multiplatform viewing, up +8% from last summer, while ranking as the summer's most social program across all television programs (excluding sports).

[09/30/26 - 12:50 PM]
ABC's Tuesday Night Kicks Off Strong as "Dancing with the Stars" and Sophomore Drama "R.J. Decker" Each Score 10 Million Total Audience
Sophomore drama "R.J. Decker" earned a total cross-platform audience of 9.61 million, based on viewing over seven days across Hulu, Hulu on Disney+ and linear encores.

[09/30/26 - 12:03 PM]
Video: "Abbott Elementary" - Season 6 Official Trailer
Welcome back, Abbott Elementarians!

[09/30/26 - 11:11 AM]
"Future Housewives," A Series Starring Aariana Madix, Is Now in Development at Peacock
Meet your future favorite!

[09/30/26 - 11:01 AM]
Video: "The Night Agent" Wraps on Final Season - Netflix
Season 4 arrives in 2027 on Netflix.

[09/30/26 - 11:01 AM]
Top 10 Most-Watched Prime Original Films & Series for the Week of September 21
"Neagley," "Reacher," "Sterling Point," "Off Campus," and "El Juicio" led all original series worldwide.

[09/30/26 - 11:00 AM]
E! Announces "The Greatest Year in Pop Culture" Streaming on Fandango and E! Digital Platforms on Monday, October 5
Through archival E! footage and articles, era-defining music, nostalgic film and TV clips, and firsthand accounts from the people who lived it, the series connects the dots between pop culture then and now.

[09/30/26 - 10:00 AM]
Bravo Unveils Full Lineup for Bravo Fan Fest Charleston on Saturday, Oct. 24
The fun doesn't stop there as "Watch What Happens Live with Andy Cohen" will tape four star-studded shows from Charleston to air on Bravo and stream next day on Peacock.

[09/30/26 - 09:01 AM]
Video: "Katseye: Wild Hearts" Trailer & Key Art Debut
The documentary film premieres on Hulu and Disney+ October 16.

[09/30/26 - 09:01 AM]
CNN FlashDoc "Zuckerberg: Facebook and the Cost of Connection" Now Streaming on the CNN App
The documentary special will stream at CNN.com/Watch and on the CNN app starting today, Wednesday, September 30 and will air Sunday, October 4 at 9pm ET on CNN.

[09/30/26 - 09:01 AM]
Prime Video Unveils Cast for Chilean Original Series "La Senora"
Amparo Noguera, Daniel Alcaíno, Carmen Gloria Bresky and Nicolás Brown star in the legal crime thriller that explores bitterness, revenge and wickedness.

[09/30/26 - 09:00 AM]
CBS Announces Three Unscripted Series Orders
The offerings include an updated edition of "Undercover Boss" hosted by Drew Carey and two new series: "Stacks of Cash," hosted by Mike O'Malley, and "24 Hour Millionaire" (wt) from the executive producers of "Big Brother."

[09/30/26 - 08:31 AM]
Video: Peacock Releases Premiere Date & First Look for Seth MacFarlane's "Ted: The Animated Series"
MacFarlane joins stars Mark Wahlberg, Amanda Seyfried, and Jessica Barth in the series, due on December 17.

[09/30/26 - 08:10 AM]
HBO Max Announces New Drama Series in Development in Spain, Created by Goya Award Winners Fran Araujo and Eduard Sola
The project is inspired by the story of Tor, a remote mountain community where tragic events took place that remain unsolved to this day.