[09/20/10 - 12:17 AM]
The Futon's Ratings Survival Guide: "Mike & Molly" and "Hawaii Five-0" (CBS)
By The Futon Critic Staff (TFC)

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome to our Ratings Survival Guide, a handy new feature which takes each new fall series on the broadcast networks and tells you the numbers it will need to survive for a second season. In general, a show's success isn't so much where it lands on the weekly ratings chart but rather how it performs in two key categories:

1. How much of its lead-in audience it retains. If a show averages 10 million viewers that's a good thing. But if the show that airs before it is averaging 30 million viewers, that's not a good thing. Why? Because 20 of those 30 million viewers decided to turn off that particular channel when the next show came on.

2. How it performs year-to-year in its time period. A new show is usually in its time period because the network thinks it can do better than it did in that slot last year. In other words, do worse than the show that was canceled after three weeks last fall then you too probably are not long for this world.

As you'll see, together these measurements paint a clear picture on how a particular show is doing. So without further ado, let's begin.

(Mondays at 9:30/8:30c & 10:00/9:00c)

"The Big Bang Theory" definitely upset the ratings apple cart on Monday nights last season: not only did its audience grow by four million viewers from season two, it grew from its significant "Two and a Half Men" lead-in - a number which lead-out "CSI: Miami" (which usually grew the 9:30/8:30c audience) couldn't maintain. The expectations for newbie "Mike & Molly" obviously aren't that high: "Rules of Engagement" held just under 83% of "Two and a Half Men's" audience the year before and went on to seasons four (and now five). The danger zone is 62%, which was how the short-lived "Worst Week" performed in 2008, a retention rate that saw it exit at midseason.

As for "Hawaii Five-0," it's replacing "CSI: Miami," a show which (until "Big Bang's" arrival last season, as mentioned above) traditionally grew CBS's audience from the 9:30/8:30c half-hour. If we discount "Bang's" numbers as an anomaly then theoretically, "Hawaii" should be doing at least 10% better than "Mike & Molly." Conversely, if "Mike & Molly" captures lightning in a bottle a la "Big Bang," "Hawaii" could lose up to 30% of that audience and still be viable to continue on a la "Miami." In other words, there's a wide range of possibilities and measuring sticks for this one.

Here's how CBS has fared on Monday nights the past two seasons (viewers are in millions, adults 18-49 is the percentage of said viewers in the demographic; all are based on fast national data, using only first-run episodes):

mondays in 2008-2010timeviewers
adults 18-49
The Big Bang Theory: Season 39:30 PM14.13
Two and a Half Men: Season 69:00 PM14.91
Two and a Half Men: Season 79:00 PM14.87
How I Met Your Mother: Season 48:30 PM9.70
CSI: Miami: Season 710:00 PM14.10
Rules of Engagement: Season 39:30 PM11.03
The Big Bang Theory: Season 28:00 PM9.94
CSI: Miami: Season 810:00 PM12.50
How I Met Your Mother: Season 58:00 PM8.88
Worst Week9:30 PM9.84
Accidentally on Purpose8:30 PM8.49
Rules of Engagement: Season 48:30 PM8.20

COMING TOMORROW: ABC's "Detroit 187" & "No Ordinary Family" and FOX's "Raising Hope" & "Running Wilde"

  [september 2010]  


most recent ratings | view all posts
[03/19/18 - 08:48 AM]
Sunday's Broadcast Ratings: NCAA Overrun Pushes CBS on Top
The Eye wins the night in total viewers but shares adults 18-49 honors with ABC.

[03/18/18 - 08:31 AM]
Saturday's Broadcast Ratings: CBS, NCAA Continue Win Streak
The Eye takes home top honors in both adults 18-49 and total viewers.

[03/17/18 - 08:45 AM]
Friday's Broadcast Ratings: NCAA Scores Another Victory for CBS
The Eye takes home top honors in total viewers and adults 18-49.

[03/16/18 - 08:19 AM]
Thursday's Broadcast Ratings: CBS Tops Charts with NCAA Tournament Coverage
The Eye's primetime portion leads the evening in both total viewers and adults 18-49.

[03/15/18 - 08:16 AM]
Wednesday's Broadcast Ratings: FOX Tops Demos, CBS Leads Total Viewers
The former's "9-1-1" and the latter's "Survivor: Ghost Island" top the night among adults 18-49.

[03/14/18 - 11:41 AM]
Discovery's Motor Madness Reaches Top Speeds Ranking as Cable's #1 Network Among M25-54 During First-Ever "Motor Mega Week"
Discovery Channel further spins the numbers for February 26 - March 5.

[03/14/18 - 08:40 AM]
"Home Town" Season Two Delivers Solid Live Plus Same Day Ratings for HGTV
HGTV further spins the numbers for the series to date.

[03/14/18 - 08:12 AM]
Tuesday's Broadcast Ratings: "This Is Us" Finale Puts NBC on Top
The Peacock wins the night among adults 18-49 however CBS is the most-watched broadcaster.

[03/13/18 - 08:19 AM]
Monday's Broadcast Ratings: NBC, "Voice" Hold Off Push from ABC, "Idol"
The Peacock wins the night in both total viewers and adults 18-49.

[03/12/18 - 04:16 PM]
Disney XD's "Star Wars Rebels" Concludes with a Season-Best Performance Across Key Demographics
Disney XD further spins the numbers for Monday, March 5.

[03/12/18 - 09:04 AM]
Sunday's Broadcast Ratings: "American Idol" Returns on Top for ABC
The Alphabet's inaugural season however opens down from FOX's final run.

[03/11/18 - 10:30 AM]
Saturday's Broadcast Ratings: ABC, NBC Share Demo Crown in Low Key Race
The Alphabet's weekly NBA coverage splits the top adults 18-49 honors.

[03/10/18 - 08:59 AM]
Friday's Broadcast Ratings: Dramas Keeps CBS in Top Spot
The Eye wins the evening in both total viewers and adults 18-49.

[03/09/18 - 08:17 AM]
Thursday's Broadcast Ratings: "Big Bang Theory," "Young Sheldon" Top Charts for CBS
Both series lead the night in total viewers and adults 18-49.

[03/08/18 - 01:14 PM]
TV One's Autobiographical Series "Uncensored" Earns #1 Spot on Ad-Supported Cable Among African-Americans for Second Straight Sunday
TV One further spins the numbers for Sunday, February 25.