or


[09/25/12 - 04:41 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 2: Shows That Premiere in September Have the Best Chance of Survival
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

2. Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.

Of the 892 shows that have premiered in the past 13 seasons (that's 1999-2000 through 2011-2012), 257 (or 29%) made their debuts in September - by far and away the most active month during the television season. It's also the most effective launching pad as of those 257 shows, 99 (or 39%) made it to second seasons - a full seven points ahead of the overall 32% survival rate we discussed yesterday.

The second most active month: March, with 116 series rolling out in the past 13 seasons. Here however the pendulum swings the other way as of those 116, just 33 (or 28%) made it to second seasons - four points below the usual 32% survival rate. The worst month historically to launch a series: a tie between May and August at a dismal 20% survival rate.

Here's the complete breakdown:


seasonabccbsfoxnbcupnwbcwtotal
jan.5/19 (26%)3/14 (21%)11/22 (50%)6/19 (32%)0/5 (0%)4/6 (67%)1/3 (33%)30/88 (34%)
feb.2/6 (33%)2/9 (22%)3/6 (50%)5/15 (33%)1/2 (50%)0/0 (0%)0/1 (0%)13/39 (33%)
mar.15/36 (42%)3/7 (43%)6/29 (21%)8/26 (31%)0/6 (0%)0/9 (0%)1/3 (33%)33/116 (28%)
apr.5/12 (42%)1/7 (14%)3/6 (50%)4/11 (36%)1/5 (20%)1/4 (25%)1/2 (50%)16/47 (34%)
may1/7 (14%)1/3 (33%)2/6 (33%)0/2 (0%)1/3 (33%)0/2 (0%)0/2 (0%)5/25 (20%)
jun.4/29 (14%)1/7 (14%)2/13 (15%)9/28 (32%)0/0 (0%)2/3 (67%)0/0 (0%)18/80 (23%)
jul.2/10 (20%)3/7 (43%)5/14 (36%)5/12 (42%)0/2 (0%)3/5 (60%)0/1 (0%)18/51 (35%)
aug.5/18 (28%)1/2 (50%)2/11 (18%)0/7 (0%)1/4 (25%)0/1 (0%)0/1 (0%)9/44 (20%)
sep.19/51 (37%)31/58 (53%)10/37 (27%)18/57 (32%)8/18 (44%)7/20 (35%)6/16 (38%)99/257 (39%)
oct.9/27 (33%)5/15 (33%)3/12 (25%)8/19 (42%)0/3 (0%)7/16 (44%)1/7 (14%)33/99 (33%)
nov.1/10 (10%)0/1 (0%)5/13 (38%)1/3 (33%)0/0 (0%)0/0 (0%)0/0 (0%)7/27 (26%)
dec.3/6 (50%)0/0 (0%)2/3 (67%)2/8 (25%)0/0 (0%)0/1 (0%)0/1 (0%)7/19 (37%)
total71/231 (31%)51/130 (39%)54/172 (31%)66/207 (32%)12/48 (25%)24/67 (36%)10/37 (27%)288/892 (32%)


So what does the above really tell us? The obvious answer is that it affirms what you'd likely guess on your own: since September is the traditional start of the television season, it has the highest level of promotion and awareness of any month, which presumably translates into a greater chance for shows to catch on. Conversely, May and August seem less apt for success as far less shows are launched during the summer months. But it's not that simple: July (35%) and December (37%) also have above average survival rates while October (33%) quickly sinks from September's top rate of 39%.

More telling then are the monthly rates for the networks themselves. FOX for instance frequently gets piled on for not showing up in the fall and rebounding in January when "American Idol" returns. The evidence supports that: FOX has the worst September survival rate of the broadcast networks (27%) but the best January survival rate at 50% (excluding the defunct WB). CBS conversely is dominant in September at 53% but shrinks to 21% in January. Straddling the middle: NBC with a 32% survival rate in both months.

Ultimately when all is said and done, if a show launches in September it has a slightly better chance to make the cut for a second season.

PREVIOUSLY: Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.

TOMORROW: Do reality or scripted shows have the best chance of survival?





  [september 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
      


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)









[04/18/14 - 12:09 PM]
First Lady Michelle Obama and Kellie Pickler Guest Star on "Nashville"
Said installment revolves around a charity concert at Fort Campbell.

[04/18/14 - 11:25 AM]
"Saturday Night Live" to Celebrate 40th Anniversary on Feb. 15, 2015
Past and present cast members, as well as special and musical guests from the show's incredible five-decade run, will appear on the telecast, with the specific lineup of guests to be determined in the coming months.

[04/18/14 - 10:56 AM]
New truTV Series "The Carbonaro Effect," Starring Comic Magician Michael Carbonaro, Set To Premiere Thursday, May 15th at 10pm ET/PT
The new 12-episode and hilarious series follows Carbonaro as he tricks, amazes and amuses the unsuspecting public.

[04/18/14 - 10:21 AM]
TLC Stitches Up Season Two, And Says I Do to More "Something Borrowed, Something New"
Season three, currently scheduled to premiere in November, promises to deliver more tears shed over old shredded threads.

[04/18/14 - 10:13 AM]
Video: "The Normal Heart" - Trailer (HBO Films)
The trailer will air this Sunday, April 20 just before "Game of Thrones" at 9:00/8:00c.

[04/18/14 - 10:02 AM]
Ariana Grande, Austin Mahone, Becky G, Zendaya, R5 and Fifth Harmony to Perform at the 2014 Radio Disney Music Awards
"Disney Channel Presents The Radio Disney Music Awards," a television special originating from the event, will be presented Sunday, April 27 on Disney Channel.

[04/18/14 - 09:32 AM]
Syfy's Hit Competition Series "Face Off" to Return for 7th Season in July
Season 7 will also introduce new judge, Lois Burwell, a renowned Academy-Award winning makeup artist known for her work on Lincoln, Braveheart, Saving Private Ryan, War Horse and War of the Worlds.

[04/18/14 - 09:30 AM]
Shakira to Sing "Empire" from New Self-Titled Album on Live Tuesday, April 22 Telecast of "The Voice"
In addition to the Grammy Award-winning Shakira, "The Voice" coaches Adam Levine and Blake Shelton will perform a song with their respective teams on the April 22 telecast.

[04/18/14 - 08:43 AM]
"Jimmy Kimmel Live" Scores Its Best-Ever Numbers at 11:35 p.m.
ABC spins the late-night numbers for Thursday, April 17.

[04/18/14 - 08:42 AM]
"Parenthood" Jumps 18% Versus Last Week in 18-49, Making It Its Top Episode in Three Weeks
NBC spins the numbers for Thursday, April 17.

[04/18/14 - 08:22 AM]
Thursday's Broadcast Ratings: "Scandal" Finale Powers ABC Into the Top Spot
The Alphabet takes home the adults 18-49 crown but falls just short as the most-watched network.

[04/18/14 - 08:17 AM]
ABC Wins Thursday with "Scandal" Posting Best-Ever Season Finale Numbers
ABC spins the numbers for Thursday, April 17.

[04/18/14 - 08:06 AM]
Celebrities, Renovating Families and Fixer-Uppers Take Center Stage in Nine New Series on HGTV
Among the network's latest additions: "Genevieve's Renovation," "Sold on the Spot" and "The Brothers Big Reno Project."

[04/18/14 - 07:45 AM]
Ed Stafford Returns to Discovery in All-New Epic Series, "Marooned" Premiering Wednesday, April 23 at 10PM ET/PT
Ed strive to prove to himself that he can tackle the challenges of any environment, once again with nothing except his camera - and find everything he needs to not just survive, but thrive in some of the world's toughest environments.

[04/17/14 - 09:31 PM]
"American Idol" Voting Results for April 17
Next week, on Wednesday, April 23, the Top Six get a little bit country and a little bit rock and roll as they perform two songs each - one country and one rock!