or


[09/25/12 - 04:41 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 2: Shows That Premiere in September Have the Best Chance of Survival
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

2. Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.

Of the 892 shows that have premiered in the past 13 seasons (that's 1999-2000 through 2011-2012), 257 (or 29%) made their debuts in September - by far and away the most active month during the television season. It's also the most effective launching pad as of those 257 shows, 99 (or 39%) made it to second seasons - a full seven points ahead of the overall 32% survival rate we discussed yesterday.

The second most active month: March, with 116 series rolling out in the past 13 seasons. Here however the pendulum swings the other way as of those 116, just 33 (or 28%) made it to second seasons - four points below the usual 32% survival rate. The worst month historically to launch a series: a tie between May and August at a dismal 20% survival rate.

Here's the complete breakdown:


seasonabccbsfoxnbcupnwbcwtotal
jan.5/19 (26%)3/14 (21%)11/22 (50%)6/19 (32%)0/5 (0%)4/6 (67%)1/3 (33%)30/88 (34%)
feb.2/6 (33%)2/9 (22%)3/6 (50%)5/15 (33%)1/2 (50%)0/0 (0%)0/1 (0%)13/39 (33%)
mar.15/36 (42%)3/7 (43%)6/29 (21%)8/26 (31%)0/6 (0%)0/9 (0%)1/3 (33%)33/116 (28%)
apr.5/12 (42%)1/7 (14%)3/6 (50%)4/11 (36%)1/5 (20%)1/4 (25%)1/2 (50%)16/47 (34%)
may1/7 (14%)1/3 (33%)2/6 (33%)0/2 (0%)1/3 (33%)0/2 (0%)0/2 (0%)5/25 (20%)
jun.4/29 (14%)1/7 (14%)2/13 (15%)9/28 (32%)0/0 (0%)2/3 (67%)0/0 (0%)18/80 (23%)
jul.2/10 (20%)3/7 (43%)5/14 (36%)5/12 (42%)0/2 (0%)3/5 (60%)0/1 (0%)18/51 (35%)
aug.5/18 (28%)1/2 (50%)2/11 (18%)0/7 (0%)1/4 (25%)0/1 (0%)0/1 (0%)9/44 (20%)
sep.19/51 (37%)31/58 (53%)10/37 (27%)18/57 (32%)8/18 (44%)7/20 (35%)6/16 (38%)99/257 (39%)
oct.9/27 (33%)5/15 (33%)3/12 (25%)8/19 (42%)0/3 (0%)7/16 (44%)1/7 (14%)33/99 (33%)
nov.1/10 (10%)0/1 (0%)5/13 (38%)1/3 (33%)0/0 (0%)0/0 (0%)0/0 (0%)7/27 (26%)
dec.3/6 (50%)0/0 (0%)2/3 (67%)2/8 (25%)0/0 (0%)0/1 (0%)0/1 (0%)7/19 (37%)
total71/231 (31%)51/130 (39%)54/172 (31%)66/207 (32%)12/48 (25%)24/67 (36%)10/37 (27%)288/892 (32%)


So what does the above really tell us? The obvious answer is that it affirms what you'd likely guess on your own: since September is the traditional start of the television season, it has the highest level of promotion and awareness of any month, which presumably translates into a greater chance for shows to catch on. Conversely, May and August seem less apt for success as far less shows are launched during the summer months. But it's not that simple: July (35%) and December (37%) also have above average survival rates while October (33%) quickly sinks from September's top rate of 39%.

More telling then are the monthly rates for the networks themselves. FOX for instance frequently gets piled on for not showing up in the fall and rebounding in January when "American Idol" returns. The evidence supports that: FOX has the worst September survival rate of the broadcast networks (27%) but the best January survival rate at 50% (excluding the defunct WB). CBS conversely is dominant in September at 53% but shrinks to 21% in January. Straddling the middle: NBC with a 32% survival rate in both months.

Ultimately when all is said and done, if a show launches in September it has a slightly better chance to make the cut for a second season.

PREVIOUSLY: Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.

TOMORROW: Do reality or scripted shows have the best chance of survival?





  [september 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
      


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)









[07/28/15 - 04:55 PM]
Syfy and Universal Cable Productions Bring the Grindhouse Genre to Television with New 13-Episode Scripted Series "Blood Drive"
Set in a near-apocalyptic future, the project centers around LA's last good cop who is forced to join a twisted, gory cross-country death race - with cars powered by blood and a dangerous femme fatale partner who sees people as fuel.

[07/28/15 - 03:55 PM]
Megastars Queen Latifah and Mary J. Blige Ease on Down the Road in NBC's "The Wiz Live!"
Queen Latifah stars as the titular Wiz with Blige as Evillene, the Wicked Witch of the West.

[07/28/15 - 02:18 PM]
Kari Byron and Tory Belleci Explore the Science Behind the World's Wildest Thrill Rides on Travel Channel's New Series "Thrill Factor"
In this 10-part half-hour series, hosts and thrill seekers Kari Byron and Tory Belleci take viewers along for the ride as they explore the exciting world of thrill rides, waterslides and heart-pounding experiences around the globe through a scientific lens.

[07/28/15 - 01:43 PM]
Animal Planet Promotes Andy Weissberg and Erin Wanner
Both have played crucial roles in establishing Animal Planet as a top-20 ad-supported network for men and the entertainment destination for viewers seeking a deeper connection to the wild world.

[07/28/15 - 12:36 PM]
Debut of NASCAR Drives NBCSN to Most-Watched July in the Network's History
NBCSN spins the numbers for the month to date.

[07/28/15 - 12:00 PM]
HBO NOW Available Today to Verizon Broadband Customers
HBO NOW is immediately available to all Verizon standalone broadband customers, including FiOS and high-speed internet customers, for a 30-day free trial.

[07/28/15 - 11:15 AM]
FOX Sports Reaches Agreement with Westminster Kennel Club to Bring Annual Dog Show to FOX Sports 1 and Nat Geo WILD
Beginning in 2017, the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show airs in primetime on FOX Sports 1 live from New York City's Madison Square Garden as the seven Best In Group selections are made on Monday and Tuesday night, leading up to Tuesday night's Best In Show announcement.

[07/28/15 - 10:55 AM]
The Lines Are Drawn in Netflix's New "Narcos" Character Posters
All 10 episodes of "Narcos" will premiere on August 28 at 12:01am PST exclusively on Netflix.

[07/28/15 - 10:54 AM]
"Income Property" Starring Scott McGillivray Premieres on DIY Network in August
"American Rehab: Charleston" and "Attic Gold" are also on tap beginning next month.

[07/28/15 - 10:33 AM]
TV Land Picks Up "The Soul Man" Starring Cedric "The Entertainer" and Niecy Nash for Fifth and Final Season
The sitcom is the network's highest-rated original series among African Americans 25-54 and African American Women 25-54.

[07/28/15 - 10:10 AM]
VH1's New Original Series "She's Got Game" Featuring Grammy Nominated Rapper Jayceon "The Game" Taylor Premieres Monday August 10th at 9 PM ET/PT
The new series "She's Got Game," follows him in his pursuit of the perfect love match as he embarks on a national tour.

[07/28/15 - 09:57 AM]
"48 Hours: Paradise Lost" Is Saturday's #1 Broadcast at 10:00 PM with Adults 25-54 and Viewers and Posts Year-to-Year Gains in Both Categories
CBS spins the numbers for Saturday, July 25.

[07/28/15 - 09:42 AM]
"Doctor Who" Returns to the Big Screen Nationwide to Feature Never-Before-Seen Prequel to Season Nine and Exclusive Interview with Peter Capaldi and Jenna Coleman
The event will feature "The Doctor's Meditation" - a special prequel scene to the first episode of season nine - and an exclusive interview with Doctor Who stars Peter Capaldi and Jenna Coleman, hosted by Wil Wheaton, in addition to the two-part season eight finale.

[07/28/15 - 09:29 AM]
The First Day of the Rest of Their Entrepreneurial Lives Begins Now on the Series Premiere of "Startup U," Airing Tuesday, August 11th, at 10:01PM ET/PT
It's a whole new game when ten savvy, creative and ambitious young adults get down to business and experience seven weeks of hard truths, tough lessons and plenty of drama on the series.

[07/28/15 - 09:28 AM]
ABC Family's Procedural Series "Stitchers" Brings on Damon Dayoub as Series Regular
He'll play Detective Quincy Fisher, an LAPD detective who is brought into the Stitchers program to assist with back-up and support for the team.