or


[09/26/12 - 04:33 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 3: Scripted and Unscripted Shows Fail at the Same Rate
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

3. Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.

If you've been following this feature for the past few days the above shouldn't come as much of a surprise. Of the 892 shows that have premiered in the past 13 seasons (that's 1999-2000 through 2011-2012), the 608 scripted ones made it to second seasons just as often as the 284 unscripted ones: 32% of the time.


genreabccbsfoxnbcupnwbcwtotal
all scripted46/146 (32%)42/103 (41%)33/112 (29%)37/136 (27%)11/36 (31%)18/53 (34%)1/6 (17%)196/608 (32%)
all unscripted25/85 (29%)9/27 (33%)21/60 (35%)29/71 (41%)1/12 (8%)6/14 (43%)0/9 (0%)92/284 (32%)
total71/231 (31%)51/130 (39%)54/172 (31%)66/207 (32%)12/48 (25%)24/67 (36%)10/37 (27%)288/892 (32%)


However, when you filter those scripted and unscripted shows into distinct genres, a slightly different picture is painted:


genreabccbsfoxnbcupnwbcwtotal
comedy (animated)0/2 (0%)0/1 (0%)3/6 (50%)0/3 (0%)0/2 (0%)1/3 (33%)0/0 (0%)4/17 (24%)
comedy (improv-sketch)2/4 (50%)0/0 (0%)0/7 (0%)2/8 (25%)0/0 (0%)2/5 (40%)0/0 (0%)6/24 (25%)
comedy (multi-camera)10/34 (29%)12/32 (38%)6/20 (30%)5/29 (17%)7/15 (47%)5/14 (36%)1/1 (100%)46/145 (32%)
comedy (single-camera)11/23 (48%)0/4 (0%)9/22 (41%)8/22 (36%)1/3 (33%)0/7 (0%)0/2 (0%)29/83 (35%)
drama23/83 (28%)30/66 (45%)15/57 (26%)22/74 (30%)3/16 (19%)10/24 (42%)8/19 (42%)111/339 (33%)
reality (competition)16/46 (35%)7/20 (35%)13/40 (33%)23/58 (40%)1/7 (14%)3/10 (30%)1/6 (17%)64/187 (34%)
reality (non-competition)9/39 (23%)2/7 (29%)8/20 (40%)6/13 (46%)0/5 (0%)3/4 (75%)0/9 (0%)28/97 (29%)
total71/231 (31%)51/130 (39%)54/172 (31%)66/207 (32%)12/48 (25%)24/67 (36%)10/37 (27%)288/892 (32%)


The above tells us that animation on the broadcast networks provides the longest odds: just four series in the past 13 years made it to second seasons, none of which came from ABC, CBS or NBC. On the flip side, single-camera comedies have the best survival rate - albeit by only one percentage point over competition series and two over dramas.

As always, the more telling aspects come from the networks themselves. CBS hasn't given a second season to a single-camera comedy in the past 13 years while ABC has brought back nearly half (48%) of theirs. Conversely, CBS has renewed 45% of its freshman dramas - the best of any network - while ABC's hour-long newcomers only return 28% of the time. Also on interest: ABC and CBS's reality competition series do significantly better than their non-competition ones whereas FOX and NBC are the opposite when it comes to their unscripted offerings.

Likewise, until today's renewal of "Breaking Pointe" (series from this past summer aren't factored into the above as many of their fates are still up in the air), The CW had yet to renew any of its non-competition reality series.

All in all, while shows in general fail at the same rate there are some ebbs and flows to specific genres and on specific networks.

PREVIOUSLY: Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.

TOMORROW: Do certain nights of the week fare better than others?





  [september 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
      


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[05/01/16 - 08:37 AM]
Saturday's Broadcast Ratings: NBC Tops Demos with NHL Playoffs
Coverage of Pittsburgh at Washington leads the night among adults 18-49.

[05/01/16 - 08:33 AM]
Penguins-Capitals Stanley Cup Playoff Hockey Leads Saturday in 18-49
NBC spins the numbers for Saturday, April 30.

[04/30/16 - 01:17 PM]
Friday's Broadcast Ratings: CBS Tops Viewers, Splits Demo Crown with ABC
"Blue Bloods" is the night's most-watched program while "Shark Tank" tops the charts among adults 18-49.

[04/30/16 - 08:38 AM]
ABC Is #1 on Friday in Adults 18-49 as "Shark Tank" Surges to a 10-Week High
ABC spins the numbers for Friday, April 29.

[04/30/16 - 08:31 AM]
"Dateline" Grows, "Grimm" & "Caught on Camera" Maintain 100% Week-to-Week
NBC spins the numbers for Friday, April 29.

[04/29/16 - 10:01 PM]
Winner Announced on "Hell's Kitchen"
The winner received a Head Chef position at BLT Steak at Bally's Las Vegas, a total prize value of $250,000.

[04/29/16 - 04:26 PM]
Discovery Channel Dominates April with More Top Ten Unscripted Cable Series with Men Than Any Other Network
Discovery spins the numbers for the month of April to date.

[04/29/16 - 04:10 PM]
Video: Watch First Looks at "MasterChef" Premiering Wednesday, June 1, at 9/8c, on FOX!
Judging the battle rounds will be Gordon Ramsay and Christina Tosi, who will taste for flavor, creativity and presentation.

[04/29/16 - 04:04 PM]
It's Official: Season 2 of Netflix's "The Ranch" Coming in 2017!
Co-stars Ashton Kutcher, Danny Masterson and Sam Elliott shared the news in a video message this afternoon.

[04/29/16 - 03:22 PM]
Science Channel Delivers Highest Rated and Most Watched April Among Total Viewers and Key Demos
Science Channel spins the numbers for the month of April to date.

[04/29/16 - 12:36 PM]
Hulu Announces Straight-to-Series Order for "The Handmaid's Tale" from MGM Television
The series will be created, executive produced and written by Bruce Miller with Daniel Wilson, Fran Sears and Warren Littlefield serving as executive producers.

[04/29/16 - 12:32 PM]
Season Eight Winner Sawyer Fredericks and Hot Band DNCE to Appear on "The Voice" Tuesday, May 3
Fredericks not only won season eight but also set a record for the first artist to have 14 songs in the iTunes Top 200 singles chart in one week.

[04/29/16 - 12:18 PM]
Showtime 2016 Summer Programming Overview
Highlights include the return of "The Circus: Inside the Greatest Political Show on Earth" on Sunday, July 10 at 8:00/7:00c.

[04/29/16 - 11:16 AM]
Velocity Keeps Foot on the Gas in April with High Single and Double-Digit Ratings Increases
Velocity spins the numbers for the month of April to date.

[04/29/16 - 10:44 AM]
New Premiere Time Alert - "NASCAR: The Rise of American Speed" Three Night Special Events Premieres May 8, 15 and 22 tt 9PM ET/PT
The three-part event will now air at 9:00/8:00c instead of 10:00/9:00c as previously announced.