or


[10/05/12 - 04:50 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 10: History Is on the Side of the Majority of This Fall's New Shows
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

10. History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

At this point we've sliced and diced the past 13 seasons in every conceivable fashion: by network, genre, time period, day of the week, the month it launches, etc. The only remaining question: is there any practical application for all of this information?

Well, we're going to try. If we create Venn diagrams of how each of the 22 new fall shows matches up to the historical track record for their specific network, genre, day of the week and time period, we find out that they have the following odds of getting a second season:

100% - animal practice (nbc)
100% - go on (nbc)
100% - neighbors, the (abc)
67% - partners (cbs)
50% - beauty & the beast (cw)
50% - ben & kate (fox)
50% - new normal, the (nbc)
50% - stars earn stripes (nbc)
50% - vegas (cbs)
44% - 666 park avenue (abc)
43% - elementary (cbs)
40% - emily owens, md (cw)
33% - arrow (cw)
33% - revolution (nbc)
32% - industry average for all broadcast shows
29% - made in jersey (cbs)
20% - chicago fire (nbc)
17% - mob doctor, the (fox)
13% - last resort (abc)
11% - nashville (abc)
0% - guys with kids (nbc)
0% - malibu country (abc)
0% - mindy project, the (fox)

Now keep in mind this isn't a critical analysis, this is just how a show's combined generic criteria (its network, its genre, its day of the week, its time period) has fared for the past 13 seasons. Obviously those at the bottom of the list could return while those at the top could get axed - it just hasn't happened in the past 13 years.

And with the industry average being a 32% survival rate, anything that increases or decreases those odds is always of interest. Think of it this way: the above illustrates where each show theoretically starts the race, not where they will finish.

For those curious about how the above numbers break down, here's how each show shakes out:

666 park avenue (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on sundays - 7/15 (47%)
abc dramas on sundays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/9 (44%)

animal practice (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on wednesdays - 2/5 (40%)
nbc single-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:00/7:00c - 2/2 (100%)

arrow (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on wednesdays - 1/4 (25%)
cw dramas on wednesdays at 8:00/7:00c - 1/3 (33%)

beauty & the beast (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on thursdays - 2/3 (67%)
cw dramas on thursdays at 9:00/8:00c - 1/2 (50%)

ben & kate (fox)
fox single-camera comedies - 9/22 (41%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 3/7 (43%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 1/2 (50%)

chicago fire (nbc)
nbc dramas - 22/74 (30%)
nbc dramas on wednesdays - 2/14 (14%)
nbc dramas on wednesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 1/5 (20%)

elementary (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on thursdays - 4/8 (50%)
cbs dramas on thursdays at 10:00/9:00c - 3/7 (43%)

emily owens, md (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on tuesdays - 3/6 (50%)
cw dramas on tuesdays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/5 (40%)

go on (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 4/7 (57%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:00/8:00c - 1/1 (100%)

guys with kids (nbc)
nbc multi-camera comedies - 5/29 (17%)
nbc multi-camera comedies on wednesdays - 0/2 (0%)
nbc multi-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 0/2 (0%)

last resort (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on thursdays - 5/20 (25%)
abc dramas on thursdays at 8:00/7:00c - 1/8 (13%)

made in jersey (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on fridays - 7/20 (35%)
cbs dramas on fridays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/7 (29%)

malibu country (abc)
abc multi-camera comedies - 10/34 (29%)
abc multi-camera comedies on fridays - 1/9 (11%)
abc multi-camera comedies on fridays at 8:30/7:30c - 0/4 (0%)

mindy project, the (fox)
fox single-camera comedies - 9/22 (41%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 3/7 (43%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:30/8:30c - 0/0 (0%)

mob doctor, the (fox)
fox dramas - 15/57 (26%)
fox dramas on mondays - 3/18 (17%)
fox dramas on mondays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/12 (17%)

nashville (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on wednesdays - 5/22 (23%)
abc dramas on wednesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 2/18 (11%)

neighbors, the (abc)
abc single-camera comedies - 11/23 (48%)
abc single-camera comedies on wednesdays - 9/12 (75%)
abc single-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 4/4 (100%)

new normal, the (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 4/7 (57%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:30/8:30c - 2/4 (50%)

partners (cbs)
cbs multi-camera comedies - 12/32 (38%)
cbs multi-camera comedies on mondays - 11/17 (65%)
cbs multi-camera comedies on mondays at 8:30/7:30c - 6/9 (67%)

revolution (nbc)
nbc dramas - 22/74 (30%)
nbc dramas on mondays - 9/23 (39%)
nbc dramas on mondays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/12 (33%)

stars earn stripes (nbc)
nbc reality competitions - 23/58 (40%)
nbc reality competitions on mondays - 8/16 (50%)
nbc reality competitions on mondays at 8:00/7:00c - 3/6 (50%)

vegas (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on tuesdays - 9/15 (60%)
cbs dramas on tuesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/8 (50%)

And that's a wrap! We hope you've enjoyed our primer and can take solace in knowing what forces are at work - both for and against - the new shows rolling out this fall.

PREVIOUSLY: Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[12/05/25 - 08:31 AM]
Peacock Exclusively Streams Monkeypaw Productions' "Him" Beginning December 19
The film stars Marlon Wayans, Tyriq Withers, Julia Fox, Tim Heidecker, Jim Jefferies and more.

[12/05/25 - 08:01 AM]
BET+ Original Film, "Vera's Holiday Flop," Premieres Thursday, December 18
The film stars Charity Jordan, Terri J. Vaughn, Griff, Chrissy McDaniel, Tyler Chronicles, Algebra Blessett, Jelani Akil, Scotty ATL, and Saycon Sengbloh.

[12/05/25 - 07:01 AM]
Academy Award Winner Cillian Murphy Returns as the Legendary Gypsy Gangster Tommy Shelby in "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man"
In select theaters March 6 and on Netflix March 20.

[12/05/25 - 07:01 AM]
Apple's Acclaimed Comedy "Platonic" Lands Season Three Renewal
"Platonic" follows a platonic pair of former best friends approaching midlife (Seth Rogen and Rose Byrne) who reconnect after a long rift.

[12/05/25 - 06:01 AM]
Video: "Time Flies" - Official Trailer - Netflix
Fresh out of prison and low on options, two women run a fumigation business - until a shady client pulls them back into the life they fought to escape.

[12/05/25 - 04:01 AM]
Netflix to Acquire Warner Bros. Following the Separation of Discovery Global for a Total Enterprise Value of $82.7 Billion (Equity Value of $72.0 Billion)
This acquisition brings together two pioneering entertainment businesses, combining Netflix's innovation, global reach and best-in-class streaming service with Warner Bros.' century-long legacy of world-class storytelling.

[12/05/25 - 12:01 AM]
Video: Netflix Unveils the First Look for "Land of Sin" - Premiering on January 2, 2026
Set in the Scanian countryside, this five-part series follows the investigation of a young teenager who is found dead on the Bjäre peninsula.

[12/04/25 - 04:01 PM]
Don Lee, Lee Jin-uk, and Lalisa Manobal to Star in Netflix Action Thriller "TYGO"
Produced by Big Punch Pictures and AGBO, with co-production by Nova Film Inc and B&C Group, the film brings together powerhouse Korean and global talent in an explosive new chapter of the "Extraction" universe.

[12/04/25 - 01:31 PM]
Heroes Rise Together! Disney+ Original Series "Percy Jackson and the Olympians" Official Branded Merchandise Now Available
Inspired by the series' rich storytelling, the dedicated e-commerce store will feature a wide variety of Camp Half-Blood-themed merchandise tailored for enthusiasts of the acclaimed series.

[12/04/25 - 12:56 PM]
Video: HBO Releases Official Trailer for the Original Drama Series "A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms," Debuting January 18
From the world of Westeros comes an endearing tale centered on the adventures of an unexpected duo.

[12/04/25 - 12:07 PM]
Video: "Mo' Waffles" - Official Trailer - Tubi Original
When a hip hop legend vanishes before his waffle joint's opening, his oddball crew must crack the case, wondering if one of them could be the culprit.

[12/04/25 - 12:00 PM]
Video: A New Generation of Camp Rockers Vie to Become the Opening Act for Connect 3 in First "Camp Rock 3" Teaser
The teaser includes a first look at the Jonas Brothers' return as Connect 3 and the new generation of campers joining the iconic franchise.

[12/04/25 - 11:02 AM]
"The Masked Singer" Returns with an All-New Season of Epic Themes and Massive Unmaskings on FOX!
Season 14 takes its beloved themed episodes to new heights, celebrating some of the most recognizable and nostalgic moments in pop culture history.

[12/04/25 - 11:01 AM]
Oxygen Renews Tentpole Series "Snapped" for Two New Seasons
The series will return for seasons 37 and 38, along with the expansion of the franchise with "Snapped: Killer Moms" (wt).

[12/04/25 - 11:01 AM]
Video: AMC Networks Debuts Official Trailer for Sports Docuseries "Rise of the 49ers," Narrated by Executive Producer Tom Brady
The limited series event, exploring the dramatic and iconic run of the San Francisco 49ers during the '80s and early '90s, premieres with the first two episodes on Sunday, February 1 at 9pm ET/PT, followed by the remaining two episodes on Monday, February 2 at 9pm ET/PT on AMC and AMC+.