or


[10/05/12 - 04:50 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 10: History Is on the Side of the Majority of This Fall's New Shows
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

10. History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

At this point we've sliced and diced the past 13 seasons in every conceivable fashion: by network, genre, time period, day of the week, the month it launches, etc. The only remaining question: is there any practical application for all of this information?

Well, we're going to try. If we create Venn diagrams of how each of the 22 new fall shows matches up to the historical track record for their specific network, genre, day of the week and time period, we find out that they have the following odds of getting a second season:

100% - animal practice (nbc)
100% - go on (nbc)
100% - neighbors, the (abc)
67% - partners (cbs)
50% - beauty & the beast (cw)
50% - ben & kate (fox)
50% - new normal, the (nbc)
50% - stars earn stripes (nbc)
50% - vegas (cbs)
44% - 666 park avenue (abc)
43% - elementary (cbs)
40% - emily owens, md (cw)
33% - arrow (cw)
33% - revolution (nbc)
32% - industry average for all broadcast shows
29% - made in jersey (cbs)
20% - chicago fire (nbc)
17% - mob doctor, the (fox)
13% - last resort (abc)
11% - nashville (abc)
0% - guys with kids (nbc)
0% - malibu country (abc)
0% - mindy project, the (fox)

Now keep in mind this isn't a critical analysis, this is just how a show's combined generic criteria (its network, its genre, its day of the week, its time period) has fared for the past 13 seasons. Obviously those at the bottom of the list could return while those at the top could get axed - it just hasn't happened in the past 13 years.

And with the industry average being a 32% survival rate, anything that increases or decreases those odds is always of interest. Think of it this way: the above illustrates where each show theoretically starts the race, not where they will finish.

For those curious about how the above numbers break down, here's how each show shakes out:

666 park avenue (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on sundays - 7/15 (47%)
abc dramas on sundays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/9 (44%)

animal practice (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on wednesdays - 2/5 (40%)
nbc single-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:00/7:00c - 2/2 (100%)

arrow (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on wednesdays - 1/4 (25%)
cw dramas on wednesdays at 8:00/7:00c - 1/3 (33%)

beauty & the beast (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on thursdays - 2/3 (67%)
cw dramas on thursdays at 9:00/8:00c - 1/2 (50%)

ben & kate (fox)
fox single-camera comedies - 9/22 (41%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 3/7 (43%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 1/2 (50%)

chicago fire (nbc)
nbc dramas - 22/74 (30%)
nbc dramas on wednesdays - 2/14 (14%)
nbc dramas on wednesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 1/5 (20%)

elementary (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on thursdays - 4/8 (50%)
cbs dramas on thursdays at 10:00/9:00c - 3/7 (43%)

emily owens, md (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on tuesdays - 3/6 (50%)
cw dramas on tuesdays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/5 (40%)

go on (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 4/7 (57%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:00/8:00c - 1/1 (100%)

guys with kids (nbc)
nbc multi-camera comedies - 5/29 (17%)
nbc multi-camera comedies on wednesdays - 0/2 (0%)
nbc multi-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 0/2 (0%)

last resort (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on thursdays - 5/20 (25%)
abc dramas on thursdays at 8:00/7:00c - 1/8 (13%)

made in jersey (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on fridays - 7/20 (35%)
cbs dramas on fridays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/7 (29%)

malibu country (abc)
abc multi-camera comedies - 10/34 (29%)
abc multi-camera comedies on fridays - 1/9 (11%)
abc multi-camera comedies on fridays at 8:30/7:30c - 0/4 (0%)

mindy project, the (fox)
fox single-camera comedies - 9/22 (41%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 3/7 (43%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:30/8:30c - 0/0 (0%)

mob doctor, the (fox)
fox dramas - 15/57 (26%)
fox dramas on mondays - 3/18 (17%)
fox dramas on mondays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/12 (17%)

nashville (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on wednesdays - 5/22 (23%)
abc dramas on wednesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 2/18 (11%)

neighbors, the (abc)
abc single-camera comedies - 11/23 (48%)
abc single-camera comedies on wednesdays - 9/12 (75%)
abc single-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 4/4 (100%)

new normal, the (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 4/7 (57%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:30/8:30c - 2/4 (50%)

partners (cbs)
cbs multi-camera comedies - 12/32 (38%)
cbs multi-camera comedies on mondays - 11/17 (65%)
cbs multi-camera comedies on mondays at 8:30/7:30c - 6/9 (67%)

revolution (nbc)
nbc dramas - 22/74 (30%)
nbc dramas on mondays - 9/23 (39%)
nbc dramas on mondays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/12 (33%)

stars earn stripes (nbc)
nbc reality competitions - 23/58 (40%)
nbc reality competitions on mondays - 8/16 (50%)
nbc reality competitions on mondays at 8:00/7:00c - 3/6 (50%)

vegas (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on tuesdays - 9/15 (60%)
cbs dramas on tuesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/8 (50%)

And that's a wrap! We hope you've enjoyed our primer and can take solace in knowing what forces are at work - both for and against - the new shows rolling out this fall.

PREVIOUSLY: Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[05/27/26 - 09:01 AM]
Video: Marvel Animation's "X-Men '97" Season 2 - Official Trailer
Time to get the X-Men back to the 90s.

[05/27/26 - 09:00 AM]
"The Book of Mormon" Original Cast to Perform at "The 79th Annual Tony Awards" Live Sunday, June 7 on CBS
The entire original cast, including Tony Award nominees Josh Gad, Andrew Rannells and Rory O'Malley and Tony Award winner Nikki M. James, will take the stage to celebrate the show's 15th anniversary on Broadway.

[05/27/26 - 08:31 AM]
Spotify & Netflix Partner with Jay Shetty to Bring "On Purpose" Video to Both Services
Netflix will bring the visual series to its members worldwide, while Spotify will serve as the global sales representative for the show and offer fans the flexibility to seamlessly watch or listen within a single app.

[05/27/26 - 08:06 AM]
Video: BritBox Debuts Teaser Trailer and Announces September 15th Premiere Date for "Agatha Christie's Tommy & Tuppence"
The six-part adaptation of the Agatha Christie novels and short stories stars Antonia Thomas, Josh Dylan, and Imelda Staunton.

[05/27/26 - 08:04 AM]
Modern Greek Noir Thriller "Save Me" Makes U.S. Debut on the Viaplay Streaming Service Beginning Thursday, June 18
The eight-episode crime drama follows a missing-person investigation that soon spirals into the hunt for a serial killer.

[05/27/26 - 08:01 AM]
Video: "Groundswell" - Official Trailer - Prime Video
The answer is beneath our feet. "Groundswell" premieres June 5.

[05/27/26 - 07:46 AM]
Alex Murdaugh Is the Focus of the Debut Episode of "Instadocs," A New Quick-Turn Doc Series
The new fast-turnaround documentary series takes you to the very center of the loudest headlines, immersing you in the facts and feelings of the moment.

[05/27/26 - 07:04 AM]
Video: MHz Choice Unveils Official Trailer and Key Art for Swashbuckling Comedic Action Series "Zorro"
Blending swashbuckling action, light comic flair and romance, the eight-episode series, subtitled in English, premieres June 30 exclusively in the U.S. and Canada.

[05/27/26 - 07:01 AM]
Apple TV Unveils First Look at New Thriller "Last Seen" Starring Patrick Brammall
The series will make its global debut on Wednesday, September 9 with two episodes, followed by a new episode every Wednesday until October 7, 2026.

[05/27/26 - 07:01 AM]
Prime Video Reveals First Wave of Talent for Obsessed Fest Including Lili Reinhart, Lana Condor, Gavin Casalegno, Benito Skinner, Belmont Cameli, Ella Bright, Lexi Minetree, Tom Bateman and More
Obsessed Fest will take place June 27 at nya Studios in Los Angeles.

[05/27/26 - 06:01 AM]
"CMA Fest Presented by SoFi," Hosted by Country Star Riley Green and "Good Morning America"'s Lara Spencer, to Air June 25 on ABC and Next Day on Hulu
The three-hour concert event will spotlight country music's biggest stars with memorable performances, exclusive collaborations and must-see surprises.

[05/27/26 - 05:01 AM]
Video: "Enola Holmes 3" - Official Teaser - Netflix
Directed by Philip Barantini, the film stars Millie Bobby Brown, Louis Partridge, Henry Cavill, and Helena Bonham Carter.

[05/26/26 - 11:01 PM]
Video: "A Shop for Killers" Season 2 - Teaser - Disney+
Welcome back to the world of killers, secrets, and trust issues.

[05/26/26 - 02:16 PM]
Tubi's New Original Weekly Talk Show Series "The Other Football" Hosted by Rob Gronkowski & Jameis Winston Set to Premiere on Wednesday, May 27
Upcoming guests for the series include: Tom Brady, Keegan-Michael Key, Brendan Hunt, Weston McKennie, Matt Turner, Jermaine Eluemunor, and Darren Lewis.

[05/26/26 - 01:02 PM]
Production Underway in Ireland on Second Season of Acorn TV's Mystery Drama "Irish Blood," Starring and Executive Produced by Alicia Silverstone
First-look images from season two, which consists of six, hour-long episodes and is filming in and around Dublin, were also released.