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[10/05/12 - 04:50 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 10: History Is on the Side of the Majority of This Fall's New Shows
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

10. History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

At this point we've sliced and diced the past 13 seasons in every conceivable fashion: by network, genre, time period, day of the week, the month it launches, etc. The only remaining question: is there any practical application for all of this information?

Well, we're going to try. If we create Venn diagrams of how each of the 22 new fall shows matches up to the historical track record for their specific network, genre, day of the week and time period, we find out that they have the following odds of getting a second season:

100% - animal practice (nbc)
100% - go on (nbc)
100% - neighbors, the (abc)
67% - partners (cbs)
50% - beauty & the beast (cw)
50% - ben & kate (fox)
50% - new normal, the (nbc)
50% - stars earn stripes (nbc)
50% - vegas (cbs)
44% - 666 park avenue (abc)
43% - elementary (cbs)
40% - emily owens, md (cw)
33% - arrow (cw)
33% - revolution (nbc)
32% - industry average for all broadcast shows
29% - made in jersey (cbs)
20% - chicago fire (nbc)
17% - mob doctor, the (fox)
13% - last resort (abc)
11% - nashville (abc)
0% - guys with kids (nbc)
0% - malibu country (abc)
0% - mindy project, the (fox)

Now keep in mind this isn't a critical analysis, this is just how a show's combined generic criteria (its network, its genre, its day of the week, its time period) has fared for the past 13 seasons. Obviously those at the bottom of the list could return while those at the top could get axed - it just hasn't happened in the past 13 years.

And with the industry average being a 32% survival rate, anything that increases or decreases those odds is always of interest. Think of it this way: the above illustrates where each show theoretically starts the race, not where they will finish.

For those curious about how the above numbers break down, here's how each show shakes out:

666 park avenue (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on sundays - 7/15 (47%)
abc dramas on sundays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/9 (44%)

animal practice (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on wednesdays - 2/5 (40%)
nbc single-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:00/7:00c - 2/2 (100%)

arrow (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on wednesdays - 1/4 (25%)
cw dramas on wednesdays at 8:00/7:00c - 1/3 (33%)

beauty & the beast (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on thursdays - 2/3 (67%)
cw dramas on thursdays at 9:00/8:00c - 1/2 (50%)

ben & kate (fox)
fox single-camera comedies - 9/22 (41%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 3/7 (43%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 1/2 (50%)

chicago fire (nbc)
nbc dramas - 22/74 (30%)
nbc dramas on wednesdays - 2/14 (14%)
nbc dramas on wednesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 1/5 (20%)

elementary (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on thursdays - 4/8 (50%)
cbs dramas on thursdays at 10:00/9:00c - 3/7 (43%)

emily owens, md (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on tuesdays - 3/6 (50%)
cw dramas on tuesdays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/5 (40%)

go on (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 4/7 (57%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:00/8:00c - 1/1 (100%)

guys with kids (nbc)
nbc multi-camera comedies - 5/29 (17%)
nbc multi-camera comedies on wednesdays - 0/2 (0%)
nbc multi-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 0/2 (0%)

last resort (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on thursdays - 5/20 (25%)
abc dramas on thursdays at 8:00/7:00c - 1/8 (13%)

made in jersey (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on fridays - 7/20 (35%)
cbs dramas on fridays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/7 (29%)

malibu country (abc)
abc multi-camera comedies - 10/34 (29%)
abc multi-camera comedies on fridays - 1/9 (11%)
abc multi-camera comedies on fridays at 8:30/7:30c - 0/4 (0%)

mindy project, the (fox)
fox single-camera comedies - 9/22 (41%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 3/7 (43%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:30/8:30c - 0/0 (0%)

mob doctor, the (fox)
fox dramas - 15/57 (26%)
fox dramas on mondays - 3/18 (17%)
fox dramas on mondays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/12 (17%)

nashville (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on wednesdays - 5/22 (23%)
abc dramas on wednesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 2/18 (11%)

neighbors, the (abc)
abc single-camera comedies - 11/23 (48%)
abc single-camera comedies on wednesdays - 9/12 (75%)
abc single-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 4/4 (100%)

new normal, the (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 4/7 (57%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:30/8:30c - 2/4 (50%)

partners (cbs)
cbs multi-camera comedies - 12/32 (38%)
cbs multi-camera comedies on mondays - 11/17 (65%)
cbs multi-camera comedies on mondays at 8:30/7:30c - 6/9 (67%)

revolution (nbc)
nbc dramas - 22/74 (30%)
nbc dramas on mondays - 9/23 (39%)
nbc dramas on mondays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/12 (33%)

stars earn stripes (nbc)
nbc reality competitions - 23/58 (40%)
nbc reality competitions on mondays - 8/16 (50%)
nbc reality competitions on mondays at 8:00/7:00c - 3/6 (50%)

vegas (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on tuesdays - 9/15 (60%)
cbs dramas on tuesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/8 (50%)

And that's a wrap! We hope you've enjoyed our primer and can take solace in knowing what forces are at work - both for and against - the new shows rolling out this fall.

PREVIOUSLY: Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.





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