or


[10/05/12 - 04:50 PM]
The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 10: History Is on the Side of the Majority of This Fall's New Shows
By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC)

1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.

Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.

So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...

10. History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.

At this point we've sliced and diced the past 13 seasons in every conceivable fashion: by network, genre, time period, day of the week, the month it launches, etc. The only remaining question: is there any practical application for all of this information?

Well, we're going to try. If we create Venn diagrams of how each of the 22 new fall shows matches up to the historical track record for their specific network, genre, day of the week and time period, we find out that they have the following odds of getting a second season:

100% - animal practice (nbc)
100% - go on (nbc)
100% - neighbors, the (abc)
67% - partners (cbs)
50% - beauty & the beast (cw)
50% - ben & kate (fox)
50% - new normal, the (nbc)
50% - stars earn stripes (nbc)
50% - vegas (cbs)
44% - 666 park avenue (abc)
43% - elementary (cbs)
40% - emily owens, md (cw)
33% - arrow (cw)
33% - revolution (nbc)
32% - industry average for all broadcast shows
29% - made in jersey (cbs)
20% - chicago fire (nbc)
17% - mob doctor, the (fox)
13% - last resort (abc)
11% - nashville (abc)
0% - guys with kids (nbc)
0% - malibu country (abc)
0% - mindy project, the (fox)

Now keep in mind this isn't a critical analysis, this is just how a show's combined generic criteria (its network, its genre, its day of the week, its time period) has fared for the past 13 seasons. Obviously those at the bottom of the list could return while those at the top could get axed - it just hasn't happened in the past 13 years.

And with the industry average being a 32% survival rate, anything that increases or decreases those odds is always of interest. Think of it this way: the above illustrates where each show theoretically starts the race, not where they will finish.

For those curious about how the above numbers break down, here's how each show shakes out:

666 park avenue (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on sundays - 7/15 (47%)
abc dramas on sundays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/9 (44%)

animal practice (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on wednesdays - 2/5 (40%)
nbc single-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:00/7:00c - 2/2 (100%)

arrow (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on wednesdays - 1/4 (25%)
cw dramas on wednesdays at 8:00/7:00c - 1/3 (33%)

beauty & the beast (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on thursdays - 2/3 (67%)
cw dramas on thursdays at 9:00/8:00c - 1/2 (50%)

ben & kate (fox)
fox single-camera comedies - 9/22 (41%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 3/7 (43%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 1/2 (50%)

chicago fire (nbc)
nbc dramas - 22/74 (30%)
nbc dramas on wednesdays - 2/14 (14%)
nbc dramas on wednesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 1/5 (20%)

elementary (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on thursdays - 4/8 (50%)
cbs dramas on thursdays at 10:00/9:00c - 3/7 (43%)

emily owens, md (cw)
cw dramas - 8/19 (42%)
cw dramas on tuesdays - 3/6 (50%)
cw dramas on tuesdays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/5 (40%)

go on (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 4/7 (57%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:00/8:00c - 1/1 (100%)

guys with kids (nbc)
nbc multi-camera comedies - 5/29 (17%)
nbc multi-camera comedies on wednesdays - 0/2 (0%)
nbc multi-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 0/2 (0%)

last resort (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on thursdays - 5/20 (25%)
abc dramas on thursdays at 8:00/7:00c - 1/8 (13%)

made in jersey (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on fridays - 7/20 (35%)
cbs dramas on fridays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/7 (29%)

malibu country (abc)
abc multi-camera comedies - 10/34 (29%)
abc multi-camera comedies on fridays - 1/9 (11%)
abc multi-camera comedies on fridays at 8:30/7:30c - 0/4 (0%)

mindy project, the (fox)
fox single-camera comedies - 9/22 (41%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 3/7 (43%)
fox single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:30/8:30c - 0/0 (0%)

mob doctor, the (fox)
fox dramas - 15/57 (26%)
fox dramas on mondays - 3/18 (17%)
fox dramas on mondays at 9:00/8:00c - 2/12 (17%)

nashville (abc)
abc dramas - 23/83 (28%)
abc dramas on wednesdays - 5/22 (23%)
abc dramas on wednesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 2/18 (11%)

neighbors, the (abc)
abc single-camera comedies - 11/23 (48%)
abc single-camera comedies on wednesdays - 9/12 (75%)
abc single-camera comedies on wednesdays at 8:30/7:30c - 4/4 (100%)

new normal, the (nbc)
nbc single-camera comedies - 8/22 (36%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays - 4/7 (57%)
nbc single-camera comedies on tuesdays at 9:30/8:30c - 2/4 (50%)

partners (cbs)
cbs multi-camera comedies - 12/32 (38%)
cbs multi-camera comedies on mondays - 11/17 (65%)
cbs multi-camera comedies on mondays at 8:30/7:30c - 6/9 (67%)

revolution (nbc)
nbc dramas - 22/74 (30%)
nbc dramas on mondays - 9/23 (39%)
nbc dramas on mondays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/12 (33%)

stars earn stripes (nbc)
nbc reality competitions - 23/58 (40%)
nbc reality competitions on mondays - 8/16 (50%)
nbc reality competitions on mondays at 8:00/7:00c - 3/6 (50%)

vegas (cbs)
cbs dramas - 30/66 (45%)
cbs dramas on tuesdays - 9/15 (60%)
cbs dramas on tuesdays at 10:00/9:00c - 4/8 (50%)

And that's a wrap! We hope you've enjoyed our primer and can take solace in knowing what forces are at work - both for and against - the new shows rolling out this fall.

PREVIOUSLY: Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.





  [october 2012]  
S
M
T
W
T
F
S
 


· SHOWATCH
(series past and present)
· DEVWATCH
(series in development)
· MOVIEWATCH
(tv movies and mini-series)





[03/02/21 - 12:34 PM]
discovery+ and Science Channel Explore All Things Weird and Unexplained in All-New Seasons of "Strange Evidence" and "What on Earth?"
In a year when things can't seem to get any more bizarre, both series will dissect the mysteries and creepiness of things that goes bump in the night.

[03/02/21 - 11:32 AM]
Season One of "Prodigal Son" Now Available for Streaming on HBO Max
The first season of the show is available to stream today, Tuesday, March 2, on HBO Max.

[03/02/21 - 11:05 AM]
Video: All-New Trailer for "Prodigal Son," Featuring Catherine Zeta-Zones and Alan Cumming
Following tonight's winter finale, look for new episodes beginning Tuesday, April 13.

[03/02/21 - 11:01 AM]
The CW Network Renews "Superman & Lois" for Season Two
The super-sized 90-minute series premiere lifted The CW to its best night of primetime in over two years.

[03/02/21 - 10:16 AM]
Peacock Orders Epic Science Series "The End Is Nye" with Emmy Award-Winning Host Bill Nye
The series sends Bill Nye into the most epic global disasters imaginable - both natural and unnatural - and then demystifies them using science to show how we can survive, mitigate, and even prevent them.

[03/02/21 - 10:02 AM]
FOX Bet Super 6 Teams with Television's #1 Entertainment Series, "The Masked Singer," for Season Five, Premiering Wednesday, March 10, on FOX
The FOX Bet Super 6 app will offer viewers an enhanced entertainment experience, by making predictions about what they think will happen in each episode throughout the season.

[03/02/21 - 10:01 AM]
Animation Expands to Mondays This Summer on FOX
Look for newcomer "Housebroken" and season two of "Duncanville" back-to-back beginning May 31.

[03/02/21 - 09:59 AM]
HBO Sports Presents an Imagine Documentaries and Fuqua Films Documentary Feature "The Day Sports Stood Still," Debuting March 24
Emmy(R)-winning director Antoine Fuqua will chronicle the abrupt stoppage, athletes' prominent role in the cultural reckoning on racial injustices that escalated during the pandemic and the complex return to competition in the summer and fall.

[03/02/21 - 09:30 AM]
"Zack Snyder's Justice League" Key Art Now Available
In addition, HBO Max announced a partnership with Footaction as well as The Heroes Among Us fan sweepstakes.

[03/02/21 - 09:01 AM]
Video: "Bad Trip" Starring Eric Andre, Lil Rel Howery & Tiffany Haddish - Official Trailer - Netflix
In this hidden-camera prank comedy, two best friends bond on a wild road trip to New York as they pull real people into their raunchy, raucous antics.

[03/02/21 - 09:01 AM]
Kevin Bacon, Angela Bassett, Phoebe Dynevor, Morgan Freeman, Gal Gadot, Justin Hartley, Chris Hemsworth, Javicia Leslie, Chrissy Metz, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Yara Shahidi, and More to Present at the 26th Annual Critics Choice Awards
The winners will be revealed live on The CW this Sunday, March 7, with acclaimed film, television, and stage star Taye Diggs returning to host for his third consecutive time.

[03/02/21 - 09:00 AM]
CBS Presents the "73rd Emmy(R) Awards" to Be Broadcast Live, Sunday, Sept. 19 on CBS
Host(s), producers and venue will be announced at a later date.

[03/02/21 - 08:32 AM]
Global Fashion Competition Series "Making the Cut" to Premiere This Summer on Amazon Prime Video
Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn will be joined by judges Winnie Harlow, world-famous supermodel, and fashion pop icon and Moschino Creative Director Jeremy Scott.

[03/02/21 - 08:01 AM]
Nickelodeon's Brand-New Preschool Series "Baby Shark's Big Show!" Makes a Splash with Spring Premieres Beginning Friday, March 26, at 12:30 PM (ET/PT)
In "Baby Tooth/Slobber Slug," Baby Shark gets his first loose tooth and enlists William's help to lose it so he can trade it in for a sand dollar.

[03/02/21 - 07:04 AM]
Critically Acclaimed Israeli Drama Series "The Attache" Debuts on Acorn TV on Monday, March 22
All 10 episodes, in Hebrew and French with English subtitles, will be available to binge.